* RBA minutes show emphasis shifting to inflation
* Keeping rates low for long could create imbalances-RBA
* Q3 CPI data on Oct. 28 could decide 50 bps hike in Nov
* Aussie jumps to fresh 14-mth highs, 1-yr swaps rise
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank shifted its emphasis to inflation from growth when it raised interest rates this month from emergency lows, a move that reinforces chances of a steeper hike next month and helped push the Australian dollar to a fresh 14-month high.
The market is now focused on the third-quarter inflation
report, due on Oct. 28. An upside surprise could see investors
increase bets on a 50 basis point hike in November
Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Oct. 6 policy meeting released on Tuesday showed that board members felt it could be "imprudent" to maintain a very expansionary policy setting for a long time as it could fuel inflationary pressures.
The Australian dollar
At the meeting, the central bank raised its key cash rate to 3.25 percent from a record low of 3.0 percent, surprising many economists and highlighting the resilience of the local economy.
The RBA also indicated it would raise rates further, leading markets to price in at least two rate hikes before year-end. This month, it became the first central bank among the Group of 20 to raise rates since signs of global recovery emerged.
"Overall, if nothing else, these comments confirm our view that the RBA is going to move to 4.25 percent quite quickly, by early March next year," said Scott Haslem, chief economist at UBS.
"The comments reinforce our view that they will probably lift rates 25 basis points at both the November and December meetings, and today's minutes certainly don't reduce the risk the RBA may go 50 basis points in November."
The RBA minutes noted that downside risks to the domestic economy had diminished significantly over recent months and that keeping rates low for long could create economic imbalances.
"Keeping interest rates at very lows levels for an extended period could threaten the achievement of the inflation target over the medium term," the minutes said.
Last week, Governor Glenn Stevens said he would not be timid in removing some of the monetary stimulus put in place to help the economy ward off the worst of the global financial crisis.
He added the cash rate would be raised to a "normal" or more neutral setting over time. The RBA has declined to spell out what a "normal" or neutral rate is, but former Governor Ian Macfarlane said nominated a range of 5.25-6.25 percent.
ALL EYES ON INFLATION
Stevens said he was keeping a close eye on prices. The RBA aims to keep inflation in a 2-3 percent band, but second-quarter core consumer prices were 3.9 percent higher than a year ago.
"If inflation surprises to the upside there is a material risk that the RBA will front-load the return to neutral cash rates sooner rather than later," said Annette Beacher, senior strategist at TD Securities, Singapore. "The calls for a 50 basis points hike on Nov. 3 will accelerate, including by us."
Beacher expects RBA's preferred core measures -- the trimmed mean and weighted median -- to rise by 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, leaving it 3.5 percent higher from a year earlier. That would still be above the RBA's targeted band.
The RBA board noted underlying inflation was above target and was likely to bottom out at a level higher than earlier thought.
"The forecast trough in inflation was not as low as previously expected, and by 2011 inflation could be rising again," the minutes showed. The RBA in August forecast inflation in 2011 at 2 percent, the bottom of its target band.
Westpac's chief economist, Bill Evans, said the minutes showed inflation and risks associated with inflation missing the bank's target were back in focus.
"We expect September quarter's underlying result to be 0.8 percent quarter on quarter or above and that will be consistent with a 50 basis point move at the November meeting," Evans added.
The board also noted that growth was expected to be around trend in 2010 and subsequently strengthen, helped mainly by its strong ties to Asia. Trend growth is considered around 3 percent.
In separate data released by the government, international merchandise imports increased 14 percent to A$17.6 billion ($16.36 billion) in September, unadjusted, from a revised A$15.5 billion in August, mainly due to higher import of car and petrol. (Editing by Mark Bendeich & Kim Coghill)