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USD/JPY weekly outlook: September 9 - 13

Published 09/08/2013, 06:20 AM
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Investing.com - The dollar was sharply lower against the yen on Friday after U.S. data showing that the economy added fewer-than-expected jobs in August dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve would start to pull back stimulus measures as soon as this month.

USD/JPY fell as low as 98.53, the lowest since September 2, before trimming losses to settle at 99.10, down 0.98% for the day and ending the week 0.47% lower.

The pair is likely to find support at 98.26, the low of September 2 and resistance at 100.21, Friday’s high.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 169,000 jobs in August, fewer than the 180,000 forecast by economists.

The unemployment rate ticked down to a four-and-a-half year low of 7.3% from 7.4% in July, but this was partially due to more people dropping out of the labor force.

The report also said that job growth in July was revised down to 104,000 from 162,000, while June’s figure was revised down to 172,000 from 188,000.

The dollar came under pressure amid renewed uncertainty over whether the Fed will start to unwind its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program at its upcoming policy meeting on September 17-18. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said that the decision to begin tapering will depend on whether economic data is strong enough.

Safe haven demand for the yen was also supported by ongoing tensions over possible military intervention against Syria. On Friday Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the U.S. against launching military action against the Syrian government without U.N. approval.

Earlier in the week, stronger-than-expected manufacturing data out of China, the U.K. and the euro zone had bolstered optimism over a broad based global recovery and propelled the dollar to one-and-a-half month highs against the yen.

The yen was also higher against the euro on Friday, with EUR/JPY down 0.52% to 130.66 at the close, ending the week 0.51% lower.

In the week ahead, the dollar looks likely to remain under pressure ahead of the outcome of the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting later in the month. Investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. data on retail sales and consumer sentiment for indications on the strength of the economic recovery.

Meanwhile, Japan is to release revised data on second quarter growth and the Bank of Japan is to publish its monthly policy meeting minutes.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 9

Japan is to release data on the current account and bank lending as well as revised data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, September 10

The BoJ is to release monetary policy meeting minutes, which provide insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. Japan is also to produce data on tertiary industry activity.

Wednesday, September 11

Japan is to publish the BSI manufacturing index, an important economic indicator.

Thursday, September 12

Japan is to release official data on core machinery orders, a leading indicator of production.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, a leading economic indicator, as well as official data on import prices.

Friday, September 13

The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on retail sales and producer price inflation, as well as preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.




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