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USD/CHF weekly outlook: September 9 - 13

Published 09/08/2013, 06:31 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The dollar slumped against the Swiss franc on Friday after U.S. jobs data for August came in below expectations, fuelling uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will start to reduce stimulus measures later this month.

USD/CHF fell as low as 0.9344, the lowest since September 3, before paring losses to settle at 0.9378, down 0.81% for the day and trimming the week’s gains to 0.28%.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9308, the low of September 2 and resistance at 0.9454, Friday’s high.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 169,000 jobs in August, fewer than the 180,000 forecast by economists.

The unemployment rate ticked down to a four-and-a-half year low of 7.3% from 7.4% in July, but this was partially due to more people dropping out of the labor force.

The report also said that job growth in July was revised down to 104,000 from 162,000, while June’s figure was revised down to 172,000 from 188,000.

The dollar came under broad selling pressure amid renewed uncertainty over whether the Fed will start to unwind its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program at its upcoming policy meeting on September 17-18.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said that the decision to begin tapering will depend on whether economic data is strong enough.

Safe haven demand for the Swiss franc was also supported by ongoing tensions over possible military intervention against Syria. On Friday Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the U.S. against launching military action against the Syrian government without the approval of the United Nations.

Earlier in the week, stronger-than-expected manufacturing data out of China, the U.K. and the euro zone had bolstered optimism over a broad based global recovery and helped the dollar to seven-week highs against the Swissy.

In the week ahead, the dollar looks likely to remain under pressure ahead of the outcome of the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting later in the month. Investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. data on retail sales and consumer sentiment for indications on the strength of the economic recovery.

Switzerland is also to release data on retail sales, as well as a report on unemployment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Tuesday and Wednesday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, September 9

Switzerland is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as data on the unemployment rate.

Thursday, September 12

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims, a leading economic indicator, as well as official data on import prices.

Friday, September 13

Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on retail sales and producer price inflation, as well as preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.




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