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US consumer mood up on "stunning" price drop-UMich

Published 11/14/2008, 09:55 AM
Updated 11/14/2008, 09:56 AM

NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence rose unexpectedly in November, rebounding from a record drop the previous month as tumbling gasoline prices offset worries about unemployment and recession, a survey showed on Friday.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index of confidence edged up to 57.9 from 57.6 in October. Despite the rise, sentiment remains at depressed levels, with the index below the lowest levels hit during the depths plumbed during the last two recessions.

"Lower gas prices and sizable discounts at retailers helped to slightly improve consumers' assessments of current economic conditions, while higher unemployment and a deepening recession dimmed their expectations for future gains," the Surveys of Consumers said in the report.

The index came in above economists' expectations of 56.0, according to the median of forecasts in a Reuters poll.

However, the good news appeared limited, with consumers' expectations for the future at their lowest in four months, falling to 55.7 from 57.0 for the lowest since July, when record-high oil prices squeezed personal finances.

Since then, financial market turmoil, recession and rising unemployment have replaced high fuel costs as worries dogging consumers.

Indeed, one-year inflation expectations tumbled in November to 2.9 percent from 3.9 percent in October. This is the lowest since December 2006, when they were also at 2.9 percent.

The drop in one-year inflation expectations was the largest one-month fall since November 2005.

"The decline in the inflation rate was stunning, as 37 percent of all consumers expected a zero inflation rate or deflation during the year ahead in early November, up from just 5 percent six months ago," the report said.

"Unfortunately, lower inflation was viewed as a consequence of a weakening economy."

The report said consumers were "unanimous in their recognition that the economy was in recession" with a record 97 percent holding that view.

The data indicated that consumers expected the unemployment rate to top 8 percent, perhaps rising has high as 8.5 percent.

The University of Michigan confidence index dates back to 1952. Its record low was 51.7, which it hit in May 1980. (Reporting by Burton Frierson; Editing by James Dalgleish)

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