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UPDATE 4-Sweden holds rates, sees no move until late 2010

Published 12/16/2009, 11:34 AM
EUR/SEK
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* C.bank says rates to stay at 0.25 percent until autumn '10

* Board split on rate decision, outlook

* Offers no further fixed-rate loans

* C.bank's Ingves says V-shaped recovery likely

* S&P affirms AAA sovereign rating

(Adds Norway rate decision, S&P rating)

By Nick Vinocur

STOCKHOLM, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Sweden's central bank held its key policy rate at a record low on Wednesday and made no changes to its rate outlook as doubts lingered over the pace of recovery in the Scandinavian economy and among its trading partners.

The Riksbank left its key repo rate at 0.25 percent, as unanimously expected by economists, and repeated its forecast that rates would stay at that level until the autumn of 2010 in order to allow a nascent recovery to take hold.

The Riksbank's caution contrasted with neighbour Norway, which hiked its key rate a quarter point to 1.75 percent, its second such move in three months.

Norway's central bank said the economy both at home and abroad was recovering although uncertainties remained.

The Riksbank took the same line -- raising its forecasts for growth and the labour market.

"We should be happy that this appears to be a V-shaped recovery and not a double dip recession," Governor Stefan Ingves said at a news conference.

Despite this, the Riksbank said monetary policy needed to remain loose for a long time to keep recovery on track.

The uncertain economic picture was reflected in divisions the Riksbank's board.

Deputy Governor Lars Svensson advocated cutting the repo rate to zero while two of his colleagues said it would be necessary to raise rates sooner than indicated by the proposed interest rate path. Svensson and colleagues Babro Wickman-Parak and Lars Nyberg took the same positions at the Riksbank's previous meeting in October.

ANALYSTS SEE EARLIER HIKE

Analysts were surprised the Riksbank had upgraded its economic forecasts -- the second meeting in a row it has done so -- but had decided not to change its rate path.

They saw a hike sooner than laid out by the bank.

"I previously thought they would hike in April, but this shows they're stubborn and now I'm guessing July," said Peter Kaplan, chief economist at RBS.

In a Reuters poll prior to the central bank's meeting, the majority of analysts saw a rate hike in the second half of next year. Ten out of 21 saw a hike coming in April or July.

This was a little more dovish than the previous poll, indicating confidence about the pace of recovery in Sweden's economy has waned. Third-quarter GDP data undershot expectations and industrial production has yet to pick up.

In addition, since the Riksbank's October meeting, markets have been rattled by debt problems in Dubai and a cut in Greece's credit rating.

Sweden's public finances remain robust -- the government ran a budget surplus in 2008 -- and Standard & Poor's affirmed its AAA sovereign credit rating for the Nordic country on Wednesday.

However, Sweden does not enjoy the buffer of Norway's vast offshore oil and gas sector wealth which has helped ease the effects of the downturn for its Nordic neighbour.

Unemployment in Sweden-- 8.1 percent currently and expected to rise -- is nearly three times the level in Norway.

While it remains cautious about raising rates, the Riksbank did say at its latest meeting it would not renew its offer of ultra-cheap loans to banks. These have helped keep borrowing costs down and contributed to loose monetary policy.

"Financial markets are functioning better," Ingves said. "This time we did not have reason to offer more fixed-rate loans."

(Additional reporting by Stockholm newsroom, editing by Mike Peacock and Victoria Main)

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