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UPDATE 4-Strong kiwi no barrier to rate hikes-RBNZ chief

Published 10/21/2009, 12:23 AM
Updated 10/21/2009, 12:27 AM

* RBNZ says strong local currency no barrier to any rate hike

* Kiwi strength largely due to U.S. dlr weakness: RBNZ

* Markets still see first rate rise in January (Adds analysts' quotes, expected timing of rate rise)

By Adrian Bathgate

WELLINGTON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank chief signalled on Wednesday that a rally in the kiwi dollar was not an impediment to any interest rate rise, saying financial markets had already largely factored tighter policy into the exchange rate.

The comments by Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard came ahead of a policy meeting next week at which the central bank is expected to hold rates but drop a reference to any more rate cuts, paving the way for eventual rate hikes.

As recently as July, the RBNZ had threatened to cut rates again, saying the strong currency was putting the country's fragile recovery at risk. In past weeks, however, a steady string of reports have indicated the local and global economies are slowly gathering strength.

"We don't want to see the NZ dollar being put under unnecessary pressure again," Bollard told a parliamentary committee in an audio clip provided by Radio NZ.

"If and when we were to increase rates would you see that coming through on the New Zealand dollar? Well you might but actually the market has already taken that into account, based on our last monetary policy statement, quite a long way ahead of where we're seeing monetary policy. So, I wouldn't necessarily expect a big impact that way."

The RBNZ reviews its cash rate on Oct. 29 and is expected to keep it unchanged at a record low 2.5 percent and repeat its pledge to keep rates at their current level until well in to 2010, but drop a reference to possibly cutting them further.

Many analysts believe it will be forced to raise rates in the first half of the year, and financial markets have fully priced in 25 basis point rises in both January and March.

The central bank would not comment on the Radio NZ report of Bollard's, which briefly pushed the kiwi up more than a third of a cent to $0.7523, before it slipped back.

The kiwi hit a 15-month high on Tuesday and has gained more than 50 percent since a low point in March, buoyed by U.S. dollar weakness as investors look for higher-yielding assets elsewhere and by positive economic data backing views that the New Zealand economy is on the mend. [ID:nWEL434956]

"I think the RBNZ will drop the easing bias next week given some of the economic data we have had. So Bollard is trying to test the waters here and see how markets react to that. The kiwi has got a lift from his comments," said Joshua Williamson, an analyst at Citi in Sydney.

But another analyst said there was a danger of reading too much into Bollard's reported comments.

"I don't think it signals them (the RBNZ) trying to sound more hawkish, and a move to higher rates at some stage is already all in the market," said BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert.

Ebert noted the reality of New Zealand monetary policy in recent years had been of rates being raised to dampen domestic price pressures even when the currency was high or rising.

"To say it today was to repeat a truism," said Ebert, who is expecting the first rate rise around mid-year.

ASIA-PACIFIC IN BETTER SHAPE

Neighbouring Australia earlier this month became the first G20 country to raise rates since the global crisis ebbed as the economy benefits from strong ties with Asia, which is bouncing back from the downturn far faster than other parts of the world.

Minutes of the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting released on Tuesday showed board members felt it could be "imprudent" to maintain a very expansionary policy setting for a long time as it could fuel inflationary pressures.

Rates in major Western economies, however, look set to stay on hold for much longer while policy makers wait to confirm that a recovery is in solid footing.

The Bank of Canada on Tuesday extinguished speculation that it would follow Australia in hiking rates quickly, warning that favourable economic developments were being undermined by the strength of the Canadian dollar . [ID:nN19231469] (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in SYDNEY) (Editing by Mark Bendeich & Kim Coghill)

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