NVDA Q3 Earnings Alert: Why our AI stock picker is still holding Nvidia stockRead More

UPDATE 4-Poland sees recovery pushing deficit below pvs plans

Published 01/07/2010, 08:38 AM
Updated 01/07/2010, 08:42 AM

* 2010 general government gap seen below 6 percent/GDP

* Q4 GDP growth seen at 2 percent, all-2009 at 1.5 percent

* Zloty seen underpinned by recovery, lower deficits ahead

* C.bank governor downplays optimism over its 2009 profit level

(Adds 2009 central bank profit estimate in para 10)

By Karolina Slowikowska

WARSAW, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Poland's economic recovery is stronger than previously expected and higher growth will drive deficit levels below earlier plans, underpinning the zloty currency, finance ministry officials said on Thursday.

Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski said the 2010 general government gap would fall below 6 percent of gross domestic product, well below earlier expectations for a shortfall of about 7 percent.

His deputy, Dominik Radziwill, said growth in the last quarter of 2009 was probably 2 percent, putting the 2009 figure at about 1.5 percent. Both figures are above the forecasts of analysts and government officials from just a few months ago.

"Germany envisages its deficit at a level of 6 percent of GDP. We will be below that level," Rostowski told daily Gazeta Wyborcza in an interview.

"And since Germany is seen as the benchmark of fiscal responsibility, then we do not have to be too ashamed of our deficit in these difficult times."

In the latest Reuters poll, analysts see the Polish economy growing by 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, by 1.5 percent for the whole of 2009 and by about 2.4 percent in 2010.

A faster-than-expected recovery by emerging Europe's largest economy, the only EU member to have avoided a recession last year, has boosted government revenues, allowing Rostowski to announce on Wednesday that last year's central budget deficit stood at 24-25 billion zlotys, below a 27.2 billion target.

ZLOTY GAINS

Wednesday's announcement that last year's deficit was lower than expected helped the zloty and bonds to firm. They were further strengthened by the central bank governor's statement that the bank had posted a "sizeable" profit in 2009.

On Thursday, Radziwill estimated this profit, a large part of which can be transferred to the 2010 budget, at more than 10 billion zlotys. This would provide an unexpected and much-needed welcome boost to revenues.

But later on Thursday, central bank governor Slawomir Skrzypek, dowplayed Radziwill's optimism and said the central bank's 2009 profit was below 4.4 billion zlotys.

"The lower deficit and debt expectations should be positive for the zloty and bonds. I myself stopped worrying about the debt numbers a while ago. But lots of people out there still do, so it should be positive," said one London-based FX strategist.

"Things are better than expected, there will be cash from the central bank and the budget-set growth forecast (1.2 percent) is too low. This should be good for the zloty and bonds somewhat as well," the strategist added.

Officials say the improving deficit this could translate into a general government gap -- the wider measure used by the European Commission that also includes local government and state agencies -- of about 6.3 percent of GDP, still double the 3 percent ceiling for euro zone members and aspiring members such as Poland.

Despite the improving economic outlook, many worry that high overall public debt levels could lead to severe spending cuts if law-enforced debt safety levels, of 50, 55 or 60 percent of GDP, are breached.

"There is no doubt that the 2010 deficit is high and must for sure be decreased in the following years," Rostowski said.

The government plans to present a fiscal consolidation plan in the next couple of weeks outlining how it intends to bring the general government deficit back to 3 percent, a move that would facilitate Warsaw's efforts to adopt the euro. (Additional reporting by Dagmara Leszkowicz) (Writing by Karolina Slowikowska; Editing by Toby Chopra)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.