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UPDATE 4-Next Hungary PM seeks support for tough spending cuts

Published 04/02/2009, 01:24 PM
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*Bajnai plans freezing public sector wages

*Plans include scrapping 13th month of wage, pension

*Amount of spending cuts cannot be reduced

*Forint firms partly on spending cut news

(Adds 2nd para, forint reaction, OTP writedown.)

By Sandor Peto and Balazs Koranyi

BUDAPEST, April 2 (Reuters) - Prime minister designate Gordon Bajnai plans tough spending cuts to lead Hungary out of crisis, provided his programme gains support from parties, a document obtained by Reuters showed on Thursday.

The plans lifted the forint as the deep cuts are vital to keeping commitments agreed to in a $25 billion IMF-led bailout last year and cutting reliance on foreign financing, although the belt-tightening is expected to be extremely painful.

Bajnai, now economy minister, wants the MPs of the Socialists, who rule in minority, and of the opposition Free Democrats to sign the document detailing the measures, including cuts in wages, pensions, family allowances and state subsidies.

The package could curb spending by an extra 120 billion forints ($538.8 million) in 2009, deepening the total cuts to 350 billion forints. Next year, the cuts would total 900 billion forints instead of 500 billion, state news agency MTI said, quoting unnamed government sources.

The two parties will vote about the new prime minister at their congresses at the week-end. Bajnai is seen winning their backing, but he may have a hard time getting the painful measures through parliament once he is in office, analysts said.

Later on Thursday, the Socialist caucus, one of highest decision making bodies of the ruling party, threw its support behind Bajnai after hearing the broad outlines of his programme.

Bajnai is set to take over on April 14 from Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany, who offered to step aside two weeks ago.

The document only includes the cuts planned on the spending side of the budget due in the next few months, but the final government programme will be broader.

In the public sector, Bajnai wants to freeze nominal gross wages for two years and to abandon the bonus 13th month wage from 2010. His government would also abandon the 13th-month pensions including payments still due this year.

"During the (future) talks (with unions, employers, politicians) it's possible and desirable to refine the package, make it more precise, and carry out the aspects of need and justness, but the total amount of spending cut cannot be reduced without threatening financial stability," the document said.

The forint overperformed other Central European currencies, firming over 3.6 percent, helped by the spending cut plans, but dealers and analysts warned economic and political risks remain high in Hungary and the region.[ID:nL299071]

Hungary's biggest bank said worsened prospects of Serbian and Ukrainian units caused bigger goodwill writedowns and its audited 2008 net profit would be 241.1 billion forints, 62.4 billion less than preliminary data showed.[ID:nL2985906]

For a detailed list of measures, see this fact box: [ID:nL2401538].

SUPPORT MIGHT WEAKEN WITH TIME

Bajnai said he wanted to introduce most measures in the spring session of Parliament, before midsummer. But analysts say he might have a limited amount of time as the Socialists and Free Democrats are under pressure from low opinion poll ratings.

Bajnai will probably get elected as the alternative is early elections, where both parties would suffer a devastating defeat, said Gabor Torok, director of think tank Vision Consulting.

It is less clear how long he can keep the Socialists under control, Torok added.

"There will be strong pressure to loosen up the package," he said. "It will be up to the prime minister to resist that."

"(But) if the Socialists see that the alternative is for the prime minister to resign, that should lend the package political support in parliament."

The measures, if supported by a parliament majority, can be implemented quickly, Torok said. In the mid-1990s, a similar fiscal adjustment package needed a remarkably short time to pass Parliament, he added.

It is also possible that the Socialists will only play along with Bajnai while they prepare for elections which may be brought forward from 2010, said Andras Giro-Szasz, director of the Szazadveg political institute in Budapest.

"The Socialist Party needs 3-4 months to prepare for (early) elections," Giro-Szasz said. "It's reasonable that they will keep Bajnai in that period and then they let him go, but I cannot predict whether that will really happen."

"That is the minimum goal of the Bajnai project."

(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi, Sandor Peto, Marton Dunai and Gergely Szakacs; Editing by Ron Askew)

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