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UPDATE 4-Japan business mood picks up; BOJ may drop funding aid

Published 10/01/2009, 04:31 AM
Updated 10/01/2009, 04:33 AM
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(For more stories on the Japanese economy, click)

* Tankan large manufacturer index improves to -33 from -48

* Corporate finance improving, may prompt end of BOJ measures

* Large companies cut capex spending for year to March 2010

* Big manufacturers pessimistic for 5th quarter in row

* Index on employment, facilities show falling excesses (Adds background)

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Japanese business morale has improved for a second quarter in a row and big firms said raising cash has become easier, paving the way for the Bank of Japan to join peers in phasing out some of its emergency aid.

But the central bank's tankan survey also showed companies kept cutting capital spending plans and the overall mood remained glum, reflecting doubts whether the recovery can be sustained.

The central bank began buying commercial paper and corporate bonds early this year to help businesses survive a credit crunch and a global economic slump, and expectations are now growing that it will let the schemes expire in the months ahead.

"Funding conditions for companies have improved sharply compared to the worst period. I think the BOJ is likely to end its corporate debt buying by the end of the fiscal year (in March)," said Junko Nishioka, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities.

The financial conditions index for large companies rose five points to plus 6, marking the second quarter of improvement, although funding remained much tighter for smaller firms.

The quarterly survey's main sentiment index for big manufacturers improved to minus 33 in September from minus 48 in June, in line with forecasts in a Reuters poll but staying in negative territory for the fifth quarter.

Yields on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds briefly edged up after the tankan showed some improvement, but they ended flat at 1.285 percent.

"The headline figures are within expectations and are consistent with market sentiment that the recovery is proceeding. But there are uncertainties on the outlook," said David Cohen at Action Economics in Singapore.

Those uncertainties, reflected in the still negative headline tankan index, are expected to persuade the Bank of Japan to keep its benchmark interest rate near zero, even while it would wind down some extraordinary measures.

"Some of the BOJ's measures may be scrapped ... But given that concern about deflation is there, interest rates should be kept near zero indefinitely," Cohen said.

That appears to be the route that other central banks are taking. The U.S. Federal Reserve has opted to taper down its buying of U.S. Treasuries and is slowing down its buying of mortgage debt, while maintaining its pledge to keep borrowing costs very low for an extended period.

The Fed also said last month it would begin to scale back short-term cash auctions in early 2010, while the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England said they would curtail steps taken to ensure dollar liquidity.

DEBT MARKETS THAW

Japan's corporate debt market has come back to life, with corporate bond issuance hitting a record high of 2.2 trillion yen ($24.5 billion) in June, a sea change from last October when even companies with high credit ratings could not issue bonds.

Capital spending, however, remains weak, suggesting the economy will struggle to gain momentum in the months ahead.

Large firms plan to cut their capital expenditure by 10.8 percent in the year to March, more than the 9.4 percent cut they projected in the previous survey.

"The most shocking point there was that companies are still very careful about capital spending," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

"It suggests that corporate sentiment is improving, but companies, especially big companies, are making business moves very cautiously."

Capital spending has been traditionally a growth engine in Japan but has fallen sharply since the global crisis dragged the economy into its worst recession in decades and is expected to remain soft even though the economy returned to growth in the second quarter. (Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

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