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UPDATE 4-ArcelorMittal Q1 disappoints, to issue shares

Published 04/29/2009, 10:58 AM
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* Q1 EBITDA $883 million vs consensus forecast $1.0 bln

* Sees Q2 EBITDA of $1.2-1.5 bln

* Plans to raise $3 bln in shares, convertible notes

* Net debt creeps higher in Q1

* Shares down 6 percent, underperforming sector index

(Updates after conference call)

By Philip Blenkinsop

BRUSSELS, April 29 (Reuters) - ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, slumped more than expected in the first three months and unveiled a share issue plan, depressing its stock despite a forecast of a second-quarter pick-up.

The company's shares yo-yoed in early trading but by 1420 GMT were down 5.9 percent at 17.57 euros, extending a 6 percent drop on Tuesday, against a 1.9 percent gain in the DJ Stoxx European basic resources index.

The much-watched EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) dropped 82 percent to $883 million in the January-March period, compared with the average $1.0 billion in a Reuters poll of 11 analysts.

However, this also included a $503 million gain from unwinding a hedge for raw materials purchases.

ArcelorMittal had forecast a figure of about $1 billion, with a 15 percent variation, due to final quarter price cuts of up to 40 percent and nearly halved output as key auto and construction markets fell into crisis.

It forecast production would remain at around 50 percent of capacity in the second quarter. (for a steel supply analysis click

The company later unveiled plans to offer about $2.5 billion of shares and $500 million of 2014 convertible notes to accelerate debt reduction. Chief Financial Officer Aditya Mittal said the offering should be completed soon.

Net debt crept up to $26.7 billion in the quarter from $26.5 billion at the end of 2008. It has a $22.5 billion debt target by year end and had calmed market nerves after the fourth quarter with a $6 billion cut.

Its debt mountain has raised speculation that ArcelorMittal might need to close sites permanently or sell core assets. Chairman and Chief Executive Lakshmi Mittal said he had no intention of doing either.

The World Steel Association forecast on Monday that steel demand would tumble 15 percent in 2009, its steepest fall since World War Two, and one exacerbated by consumer destocking. U.S. auto sales slid 37 percent in March and home sales a month-on-month 0.6 percent.

The CEO said he was a little less pessimistic and believed global destocking would be completed in the second quarter.

ArcelorMittal's slump mirrors that of rivals. On Tuesday, China's top steelmaker Baosteel reported a 98 percent drop in first-quarter net profit and world No.2 Nippon Steel forecast zero profit this financial year.

Economists believe the first quarter may have been as bad, or even worse, than the wretched fourth quarter of 2008.

Q2 PICK-UP SEEN

ArcelorMittal forecast core profit in the second quarter would recover to some $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion. It had previously seen the first quarter as the low point in terms of profitability.

It made a net loss in the first quarter of $1.1 billion due in part to $1.2 billion of pretax exceptional charges, mainly for writing down inventories. In the fourth quarter, this figure had been $4.4 billion.

It also said it saw potential for price increases during the second and third quarters across major markets and products, although in a presentation it said that it expected a lower average steel price.

"Although market conditions remain challenging, a technical recovery is inevitable and ArcelorMittal will benefit from this," Lakshmi Mittal said.

The market had been braced for a weak first quarter, but some analysts commented that the "clean" EBITDA figure was much worse than expected. The second-quarter guidance of an improvement was generally deemed positive.

"It's a fair jump upwards ... Another positive is the decline in the size of writedowns for inventory," said Dirk Nettling, analyst at Commerzbank.

The share issue, while dilutive, would ease concerns that ArcelorMittal would breach its debt covenants, analysts said.

The company, formed from Mittal Steel's takeover of then world No.2 Arcelor, went on a spending spree during the commodities boom, ratcheting up debt. (Editing by Simon Jessop and Jon Loades-Carter)

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