* Posts $481.9 million loss, mostly on U.S. writedowns
* Puts new projects in Dubai on hold
* Analysts had forecast $438.3 million profit
(adds share price; Burj Dubai details)
By Jason Benham
DUBAI, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Emaar Properties swung to a surprise fourth-quarter loss due to heavy U.S. writedowns and put new projects on hold in its weakening home market of Dubai, where it is constructing the world's tallest building.
Emaar, the largest listed Arab real estate developer, posted a loss of 1.77 billion dirhams ($481.9 million), as further sharp falls in property valuations in the recession-hit U.S. dragged the company deep into the red.
"We definitely expected a decline in profitability but the loss is greater than expected," said Bikash Rout, senior finance analyst at Global Investment House in Kuwait.
"The writedowns in the U.S. amplified losses in the fourth quarter. I wouldn't be surprised to see more provisions in the next quarter because there is so much negativity in the market and we don't expect property prices to stabilise in the UAE."
Emaar said its aim would now simply be to complete the developments that it had started, not to begin new ones.
That marked a sharp reversal from its frenetic expansion during the real estate boom, culminating in the multi-billion-dollar Burj Dubai project, which includes a tower that will be at least 800 metres (2,625 feet) tall when completed.
Dubai's real estate sector has been hit hard by the global financial crisis as property prices fall, developers cancel or defer projects and jobs are slashed.
"Whilst inventory writedowns are normally not a recurring item, we see a risk that in full-year 2009 and 2010 Emaar will have to start writing down inventory in other markets, notably Dubai," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
"We believe the risk is Emaar's operating profits will continue to deteriorate in the coming quarters."
Morgan Stanley said last week that Dubai property prices had fallen by an average of 25 percent since their peak in September and that some $263 billion worth of projects throughout the United Arab Emirates had been delayed or cancelled.
"Putting new projects on hold is going to affect profit going forward but it is a sensible move given the correction in prices we are seeing and the uncertainty in the property sector," Global Investment House's Rout said.
Emaar's shares have plunged nearly 85 percent from their 12-month high. The stock closed 0.5 percent lower at 2 dirhams on Thursday, before the results were released.
Analysts had forecast a profit for Emaar's fourth quarter, ranging from 1.33 billion dirhams to 2.10 billion dirhams for an average of 1.61 billion ($438.3 million), according to a Reuters survey in December.
Revenue fell to 3.50 billion dirhams from 5.14 billion dirhams a year ago, and the company wrote down 919 million dirhams of inventory and another 1.77 billion dirhams in goodwill on John Laing Homes, its U.S. subsidiary.
The firm posted full year profit attributable to shareholders of 3.06 billion dirhams, compared with 6.58 billion dirhams in 2007.
Emaar recorded a loss per share of 0.29 dirhams in the fourth quarter compared with a profit per share of 0.29 dirhams a year earlier.
Emaar made a profit of 1.74 billion dirhams in the fourth quarter of 2007 and 4.82 billion dirhams in the first nine months of 2008.
(Reporting by Jason Benham; Editing by Rupert Winchester, Erica Billingham, John Stonestreet)