(Adds inflation, housing prices in paras 14-16)
By Yoo Choonsik
SEOUL, April 1 (Reuters) - South Korean exports fell 21.2 percent in March from a year earlier, the fifth straight month of decline, but the data offered tentative signs that the global slump in demand may be bottoming out.
The figures suggested that exports are stabilising, analysts said. Alongside surprising strength in factory output and consumer goods sales, the data underlines investor expectations that the central bank would skip a rate cut for the second month in a row when it reviews policy next week.
The March decline was smaller than a slide of more than 26 percent in January and February combined and a breakdown of the figures for exports per working day also pointed to some recovery from the slump.
On a working-day basis, used to gauge monthly changes -- exports rose to $1.18 billion in March from $1.16 billion in February and $0.99 billion in January, data from the Ministry of Knowledge Economy showed.
"It seems we're seeing some signs of the economy reaching a bottom, although the latest improvement in data is partly a technical rebound from a very deep trough," said Kwon Soon-woo, chief economist at Samsung Economic Research Institute.
"The ground for further rate cuts is pretty weak now. The central bank will likely hold rates, at least in April."
The fall in exports in March was slightly deeper than expectations for a median 20.2 percent decline. Exports fell 26.4 percent in the first two months of the year, which analysts look at in combination to account for holiday distortions.
For a graphic on South Korean exports, double-click on: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/mar09/KR_EXP0409.jpg
Underlining the data, Taiwan export orders fell less than expected in February and also less than in January.
Seoul stocks and the won rose on investor hopes that Asia's fourth-largest economy may have reached a trough.
GROWING TALK OF ECONOMY BOTTOMING
Investors and analysts closely watch South Korea's data because the country, which sends one-third of total exports to China and the United States, is the first big exporter in the world to report monthly foreign trade figures.
Other data released this week also provided some signs of the economy passing through its worst phase, including findings from surveys on business confidence and February industrial production and consumer goods sales figures.
A deputy minister at the economy ministry told reporters that economy-related ministries shared the view that the economy may have touched a bottom between January and February.
But imports and inflation figures showed domestic demand was still in a deep slump. Imports in March tumbled 36.0 percent from the same month in 2008, also deeper than expectations for a 34.9 percent fall and the sharpest loss since October 1998.
Consumer price inflation in March also slowed to an annual rate of 3.9 percent, matching market expectations, from 4.1 percent in February. It stays above the 3.5 percent ceiling of the central bank's 2007-2009 target on the weaker won.
But the central bank has repeatedly said that inflation would ease over coming months.
The faster drop in imports than exports boosted the trade balance to a record $4.61 billion in March from a revised $2.93 billion in February.
President Lee Myung-bak told CNBC television on Wednesday while attending the London G20 summit that the country would probably post a trade surplus of up to $20 billion in 2009 after suffering its first deficit in 11 years in 2008.
The ministry did not release figures broken down by country or industry, but said exports to China for the first 20 days of the month fell 17.2 percent over a year earlier, compared with a 26 percent loss for the first two months.
The central bank reviews interest rates on April 9.
The Bank of Korea held the base rate steady at a record-low 2.0 percent in March, pausing for the first time after six consecutive reductions totalling 3.25 percentage points. (Editing by Jan Dahinten)