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UPDATE 3-Russian foreign car sales fall 15 pct in Nov

Published 12/09/2008, 01:58 PM
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(Adds bullet points, Putin imposing higher car import tariffs)

* First monthly decline in 4 years of reporting

* 23,857 fewer cars sold in Nov. 2008 than in Nov. 2007

* Compares with 9 percent year-on-year growth in Oct. 2008

* PM Putin signs laws to raise car import tariffs -agencies

By Simon Shuster and Olga Borodina

MOSCOW, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Sales of foreign car brands in Russia fell 15 percent in November, the first year-on-year decline in at least four years, as a drought of cheap car loans sapped Russia's dream of becoming Europe's top market next year.

The Association of European Businesses in Russia said on Tuesday 23,857 fewer foreign models were sold last month than in November of 2007.

It came in sharp contrast with October, when sales were still 9 percent up year on year. Growth amounted to over 50 percent during some earlier months in 2008. The data also showed foreign car sales rose 31 percent in January-November, far slower than the 63 percent rise in the same period last year.

"We expect that the first half of 2009 will be particularly tough for car makers," said Natalia Sorokina from bank Uralsib.

Carmakers across Europe and Asia have reported already subdued sales tumbling faster in November as the deepening recession drives buyers from showrooms and prompts warnings of more gloom next year.

All major automakers have reported double-digit percentage declines for U.S. auto sales in November.

U.S. automaker Ford Motor Co. said on Monday it would suspend production at its Russian plant in December for a month.

French automaker Renault said it would stop the assembly line at its Moscow plant for two weeks as demand weakens due to the financial crisis.

UralSib's Sorokina said more similar news would emerge soon.

HIGHER IMPORT TARIFFS

The new data came hours before Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed legal amendments that will sharply raise import tariffs on used cars, local agencies reported, a move that threatens to make costs higher for some importers even as demand falls.

As part of the protectionist measures, which could threaten Russia's joining the World Trade Organization, an import duty of 30 percent will be placed on cars older than one year.

The government announced the changes last month in an effort to shore up domestic car production and support local players such as AvtoVAZ.

Almost all major car makers have in recent years opened or planned to open plants in Russia, betting on rising income fuelled by record prices for Russia's main export commodities -- oil, gas and metals.

But with oil prices falling four-fold since reaching their peaks in July and Russian unemployment rates rising fast, the uncertainty for foreign car producers in Russia is growing.

Car sales are still being supported by the relatively strong rouble, but as the current account surplus is poised to fall next year, the government will come under more pressure to devalue the currency.

That would be good news for Russian producers such as AvtoVAZ, but a bad development for foreign car makers as their models would become unaffordable for many Russians.

Firms such as Toyota have already pegged their prices to the dollar in a major vote of no confidence in the rouble after the central bank allowed the currency to weaken with four consecutive 1 percentage point moves over the past month.

Among the major foreign carmakers working in Russia, the worst hit was Hyundai Motors, whose November sales fell 36 percent year on year, or by nearly 6,500 cars.

Mitsubishi was also hit badly, with a 51 percent drop last month, or 5,800 fewer cars than a year ago.

Following are November sales for the top 10 foreign car brands in Russia compared with the same period of 2007, as well as total figures for foreign car sales. The figures include foreign-branded vehicles produced in Russia: --------------------------------------------------------------- BRAND Nov 08 Nov 07 percent ytd '08 ytd '07 percent Chevrolet* 16,192 18,195 -11 215,480 169,234 +27 Ford 14,039 17,854 -21 169,008 154,738 +9 Toyota 13,271 10,813 -23 176,232 132,597 +33 Hyundai 11,516 17,992 -36 183,013 130,166 +41 Honda 8,075 4,837 +67 78,024 33,415 +133 Nissan 7,218 10,536 -31 134,677 103,805 +30 Renault 7,137 10,451 -32 99,784 90,310 +10 Opel 5,895 6,870 -14 91,462 57,799 +58 Mitsubishi 5,514 11,307 -51 104,525 90,424 +16 KIA 5,251 7,397 -29 83,734 71,093 +18 --------------------------------------------------------------- Total 136,554 160,411 -15 1,915,576 1,467,484 +31 --------------------------------------------------------------- * Chevrolet sales include GM-Avtovaz joint venture.

NOTE - To see a full list of foreign car sales in Russia, click http://www.aebrus.ru/committees/industrial/automobile/

- Source: AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee. (Editing by Will Waterman)

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