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UPDATE 3-Russia devalues rouble for sixth time, more to come

Published 12/22/2008, 12:57 PM
Updated 12/22/2008, 01:00 PM

(Adds c.bank interventions)

By Gleb Bryanski

MOSCOW, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank devalued the rouble for the sixth time this month on Monday and financial markets are convinced more is in store as it bids to right an economy stricken by the financial crisis and falling oil prices.

The bank has allowed markets to knock almost 14 percent off the rouble since an Aug. 4 peak and 9 percent since Nov. 11, when it began a series of mini-devaluations to protect its dwindling foreign reserves and bolster economic growth.

A source at the bank said on Monday it had widened the trading band again, allowing the rouble to weaken by another 30 kopecks to 33.45 against the dollar/euro basket .

Some dealers said the nomination of the central bank's chief trader for a board position on Monday also suggested it was happy with policy so far and could continue a drive to a weaker rouble -- making exports more competitive going forward.

"The market is in such a state that it expects another devaluation every day," said currency dealer Mikhail Spolokhov from Nomos bank.

The rouble has depreciated as far in the past month as economists had expected it to weaken during the whole of next year -- in a Reuters poll in late November, the end-2009 forecast had been 33.44, end-2008 was 31.30.

"We are pleased to see the central bank accelerating the devaluation, and expect to see more such moves before the end of the year," Pharos Financial Group fund managers said in a daily market comment.

Analysts view the rouble exchange rate as still undervalued even after the devaluations and traders said the central bank spent between $2.0 and $2.5 billion supporting the currency on Monday.

Time is running out for the bank to make more moves, with markets closing for a long New Year and Orthodox Christmas holiday between Dec. 31 and Jan. 11.

BRAIN AND SOUL

On Monday, the central bank also recommended its chief trader Sergei Shvetsov, 37, who oversees currency market interventions as well as management of Russia's gold and forex reserves, to become a new board member.

Shvetsov, who joined the central bank in 1993, has kept a low public profile as head of an open market operations department that has kept financial markets guessing on policy throughout the global crisis.

"We all know that Shvetsov is a soul and brain of the Russian currency market. He was always an intellectual driver of the exchange rate policy and therefore unlikely this policy will change," said Alexei Moiseyev from Renaissance Capital.

The central bank runs a managed float of the rouble, keeping it stable against the basket, made up of 0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros. The rouble closely follows the price of oil, Russia's main export commodity.

STICK AND CARROT

Some of the devaluation moves have coincided with dollar weakness, masking the change for the general public which focuses on the dollar/rouble rate .

A weaker dollar also masks the decline in Russia's gold and forex reserves, still the world's third largest at $435.4 billion.

Even so, the rouble stood near three-year lows against the dollar while fresh trade balance data suggested imports were already hit by the weak rouble.

Interfax news agency said Russia's trade surplus shrank to $7.1 billion in November, the smallest surplus since at least January 2005. Imports were flat year-on-year, while exports slumped by 27 percent, it said.

Officials say they have got currency speculation under control compared with previous months when Russian and foreign banks bet on the rouble's weakening and opened long foreign currency positions. For a FACTBOX on key rouble moves [ID:nROUBLEFAC] (Additional reporting by Andrei Ostroukh; editing by Tony Austin/Patrick Graham)

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