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UPDATE 3-Russia allows second rouble weakening in 2 weeks

Published 11/24/2008, 08:38 AM
Updated 11/24/2008, 08:42 AM

(Adds money market rates, quotes, stocks, data)

* Russia allows second rouble weakening in two weeks

* Currency weakens 1 percent to as far as 31 vs basket

* C.bank says widens trading corridor by 30 kopecks each way

By Yelena Fabrichnaya and Toni Vorobyova

MOSCOW, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank allowed the rouble to weaken by one percent versus a euro-dollar basket for the second time in two weeks on Monday, in a move which is seen as part of a gradual depreciation policy.

The rouble has come under heavy pressure as the oil price collapses, investors flee emerging markets, and local companies and ordinary Russians start to shift some of their money into foreign currencies.

The central bank -- which has admitted it spent $57.5 billion defending the currency in September and October -- first allowed a one percent weakening on Nov. 11, letting the rouble slip past the previously-defended 30.41 level to around 30.71. On Monday, the rouble weakened as far as 31.01.

"It is a technical decision. We have allowed the widening of the corridor by 30 kopecks in each direction," an official at the central bank's press office told Reuters.

With Russia's reserves down by over a fifth from their early August peaks and some of the cash earmarked for an economy rescue package, analysts had expected further devaluations.

Authorities' comments also seemed to leave the door open for a gradual rouble weakening, with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and others focusing their rhetoric on ruling out sharp moves.

"The central bank ... has entered a phase of gradual devaluations. Today is not the last step," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

"The central bank will try to do it as slowly as possible but it's restricted by the fact that ... they are running out of ammunition to defend the rouble and at the same time the rouble remains under pressure."

TIGHT LIQUIDITY

The price of Russia's benchmark Urals crude has fallen to around $45 a barrel -- less half the level factored into next year's budget and suggesting that there will be less oil money coming in to replenish reserves in the future.

Some analysts have said the central bank could take advantage of any temporary dollar weakness to make a rouble/basket devaluation less worrying for ordinary Russians who tend to focus on the dollar/rouble rate.

On Monday, the dollar was down 1.3 percent against a basket of six major currencies.

The maturing of nearly 400 billion roubles ($14 billion) of central bank loans on Monday and month-end tax payments could also cap short-term pressure on the currency, potentially making it an opportune time to announce a band widening.

The demand for roubles was illustrated by the surge in interbank money market rates, with one-, two-, three- and six-month Mosprime rates all at historic highs, as well as by the fact that the rouble retreated from the central bank's new support level to around 30.94 by 1248 GMT.

Moscow's bourses showed little reaction to the weaker rouble, rising on the back of improved global risk appetite.

NOT ENOUGH?

However some analysts question whether the gradual depreciation programme will work.

"It's not necessarily a good move because it will not defuse speculation on the need for further rouble depreciation," said Benoit Anne, EMEA FX and debt strategist at Merrill Lynch in London, forecasting a 10 percent depreciation in the first half of 2009.

Russian officials on Monday estimated retail deposit outflows of around 6 percent from banks last month. Russians are taking money out of rouble accounts, and putting only part of it in foreign currency deposits instead.

Signs of economic weakness add further weight to the argument for a weaker rouble. Interfax news agency reported on Monday that Russian economic growth slowed to 5.9 percent year-on-year in October, its weakest pace in a year.

On the day of the last rouble weakening, the central bank spent an estimated $7 billion defending the new rate -- as much as during the whole of last week. It also followed up the move by raising the key refinancing rate to 12 percent in a bid to increase the rouble's yield appeal.

Analysts said another rate hike was possible this time. (Writing by Toni Vorobyova; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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