💎 Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 set to trigger market. Find undervalued gems with Fair ValueSee Undervalued Stocks

UPDATE 3-Russia allows 6th mini rouble devaluation in 5 wks

Published 12/15/2008, 08:35 AM
Updated 12/15/2008, 08:40 AM

(Adds political background, Klepach)

By Toni Vorobyova and Yelena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Russia allowed the sixth mini-devaluation of the rouble in five weeks on Monday, gradually caving in to downward pressure on the currency from falling oil prices and a worsening economic outlook.

A central bank source confirmed the trading band had been widened again on Monday. The rouble weakened to 32.21 against a basket of 0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros from 31.87 on Friday.

"It is possible that they will speed up the depreciation of the rouble, for example to twice a week," said Stanislav Yarushevichus, head of trading at ING in Moscow, adding that the rouble "still looks unjustifiably strong".

With memories of the 1998 financial crisis and rouble collapse still fresh in Russians' memories, authorities -- including Prime Minister Vladimir Putin -- have tried to allay public concerns by stressing that there will be no sharp moves.

Most of the rouble devaluations versus a euro-dollar basket have coincided with periods of dollar weakness. As a result the brunt of the rouble devaluations have been borne by the euro component of the basket, and this has minimised the pain for ordinary Russians who focus on the dollar/rouble rate."

Russia has seen its gold and forex reserves, the world's third largest, shrink by a quarter since early August to under $440 billion as the central bank has battled to defend the rouble in the face of falling oil prices, worsening economic fundamentals and broad capital flight from emerging markets.

With reserves shrinking fast, the central bank started widening the rouble's trading band by 30 kopecks in each direction at roughly weekly intervals from Nov. 11.

The rouble is now 5.5 percent weaker versus the basket since the regular devaluations started, taking its losses since the historic peaks set in early August to nine percent.

The devaluations have received scant coverage on Russia's mostly state-controlled television and to-date there are few signs of panic on the streets although statistics show people are slowly shifting money into foreign currency.

"What allows them to widen the rouble trading band so actively is the strong euro, which means the dollar/rouble exchange rate remains virtually unchanged," said Aleksandra Evtifyeva, analyst at VTB Capital.

"For us the dollar/rouble rate is still an important indicator of stability for the population."

Versus the dollar, the rouble has lost less than 3 percent since Nov. 11 although it is down about 20 percent from summer peaks. The dollar hit a two-month low versus the euro on Monday .

Authorities seem sensitive to public perception of the situation -- after deputy economy minister Andrei Klepach said on Friday that Russia was entering a recession, Putin's press office went to great lengths to contradict this.

They have also taken steps such as hiking unemployment benefit that could help avert any possible future social unrest.

OIL, CONFIDENCE ISSUE

The price of Russia's main Urals oil blend has fallen 70 percent from its summer peaks to around $40 a barrel. Anything below $60 next year will mean further pressure on reserves as Russia will need the money to plug holes in its budget.

Alexei Ulyukayev, the central bank's first deputy chairman, on Saturday said the regulator was not about to scrap the rouble band but was moving towards "a quasi-free" float.

Russia is now in a much stronger position than a decade ago, with little government debt and still the third biggest reserves in the world. But there are signs of a sharply slowing economy and high levels of corporate debt.

"A strong rouble is generally viewed by the population as an important proxy for the competence of the state," Frank Gill, credit analyst at Standard & Poor's wrote in an article in The Moscow Times on Monday.

"If key export prices remain weak, the relative prices of domestically produced goods to imported ones will need to adjust ... This is generally achieved via a sizeable exchange rate adjustment."

S&P last week became the first ratings agency to downgrade Russia in a decade, and now rates it two notches above junk.

Analysts polled by Reuters last month had forecast that the rouble would weaken as far as 33.44 to the basket by end-2009.

"It's very much a confidence issue. If confidence stabilises then you will be able to hold exchange rate around this level. If people continue to shift deposits out of the rouble then they will have to do more," said David Hauner, currency strategist at Bank of America in London. -- For a FACTBOX on the rouble see -- For a TAKE-A-LOOK on Russian financial crisis (Writing by Toni Vorobyova; Editing by Stephen Nisbet)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.