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UPDATE 3-Record pace of fall in Japan GDP seen confirmed

Published 06/04/2009, 04:22 AM
BARC
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* Japan firms capex, profits, sales all post record falls

* Revised GDP seen unchanged from prelim figure

* Data won't change view economic rebound will be slow

By Stanley White

TOKYO, June 4 (Reuters) - Revised figures are expected to confirm that Japan's economy shrank at a record pace in the first quarter, supporting views that after bottoming out in January-March the nation is on a slow path to recovery from its worst recession since World War Two.

Gross domestic product likely fell 4.0 percent in the first quarter, said economists polled by Reuters after the Finance Ministry announced that capital spending tumbled a record 25.3 percent in the quarter from a year earlier. The capex figures were better than expected but will be offset by lower inventories.

The economy is likely to grow only 0.5 percent from the second quarter as overseas demand is not strong enough to encourage Japan's manufacturers to rapidly boost spending. Falling wages and a rising jobless rate will also weigh on growth in the coming months, economists say.

"Overall, corporate earnings conditions remain severe, so declines in capital expenditure were inevitable. While the pace of decline was smaller than expected, there's no doubt capital spending was weak in the first quarter," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital.

Corporate spending fell slightly less than a market forecast for a 26.5 percent slide. The fall in first-quarter capex followed a 17.3 percent drop in the final three months of 2008. The figures are used in calculating revised GDP due on June 11.

In preliminary data the capex component fell 10.4 percent, slashing overall GDP by 1.6 percentage point. Revised figures will show capex fell a median 9.1 percent, according to the poll. Corporate spending accounts for around 14 percent of GDP.

The seasonally adjusted value of inventories fell by 5.6 trillion yen ($58.29 billion) in the first quarter from a year earlier, faster than a 4.6 trillion yen annual decline in the previous three-month period.

"I'm still expecting a double dip," said Seiji Adachi, a senior economist at Deutsche Securities.

"After the bounce in industrial output is over, the economy will slow again due to weak consumption and a severe labour market. Capex will also be a problem for any V-shaped recovery."

Japanese firms' recurring profits in January-March fell 69 percent from a year earlier while sales dropped 20.4 percent, both record falls and underlining the severity of the recession. ($1=96.07 Yen) (Editing by Michael Watson)

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