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UPDATE 3-NZ jobless hits 10-year high, rates on hold till June

Published 02/03/2010, 08:09 PM
Updated 02/03/2010, 08:12 PM

* NZ unemployment rises to 7.3 percent, worse than expected

* Economy sheds 2,000 jobs, employment falls 0.1 percent

* Investors now see first central bank rate rise in June

* NZ dollar, swap yields fall as rate views pushed back (Adds comment, updates market reaction, graphic link)

By Mantik Kusjanto

WELLINGTON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - New Zealand's jobless rate surged unexpectedly to a 10-year high in the fourth quarter as more people looked for work in a shrinking job market, forcing investors to scale back expectations of a rate rise before mid-year.

The New Zealand dollar slipped nearly a cent in trading on Thursday to a four-and-a-half month low of $0.6968. Wholesale interest rates <0#NBB:> and swap yields also fell by as much as 12 basis points as markets discounted the chances of an early rate rise.

"This is much worse unemployment than expected by anyone. It pushes out the timing of the Reserve Bank starting the tightening phase by six weeks to June," said Westpac senior markets strategist Imre Speizer.

Financial markets quickly shifted their pricing for the first rate hike to June from April. A 35 basis point rise is now fully priced in for the June 10 review and the chance of an April rise is now around 20 percent from about 60 percent before the data.

Markets had already moved back their pricing for a hike to April from March last month after benign inflation and wages data.

Pricing for the next 12 months has fallen to 171 basis points from 191 basis points early this week .

Official data showed employment fell by 0.1 percent, as expected, in the fourth quarter. The jobless rate, however, surged to 7.3 percent, the highest since the June quarter of 1999, as more people sought work. A Reuters poll had forecast unemployment to rise to 6.8 percent from 6.5 percent.

The data showed the economy lost 2,000 jobs in the construction and services sectors, with full-time employment down 0.3 percent and part-time jobs up 0.1 percent.

The participation rate rose more than expected to 68.1 percent from 68 percent in the previous quarter.

Finance Minister Bill English had said this week there were signs unemployment was nearing its peak -- official forecasts have picked around 7 percent -- although it was unlikely to drop quickly, as people agreed to work fewer hours to save their jobs. The central bank sees it peaking at 6.6 percent by March this year. [ID:nSGE611027]

Thursday's jobs data "is reinforcing to the RBNZ that wage pressures will remain muted, and they'll be comfortable with the on-hold until the middle of 2010 view," said ASB Bank chief economist Nick Tuffley.

The jobless rate hit a 22-year low of 3.4 percent in the December 2007 quarter, and the tight labour market and resulting wage pressures were factors in the central bank lifting rates to a record high of 8.25 percent to contain inflation, before it started its easing cycle in July 2008 to counter the impact of the global economic crisis.

For a graphic on the job data click http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/0210/NZ_UNEMP0210.gif

SLOW REBOUND SEEN

Last week, the central bank held the benchmark cash rate at a record low 2.5 percent and planned to keep it there until around the middle of the year, countering market speculation of an earlier hike. [ID:nSGE60P0EK]

Recent retail sales, house sales and prices, consumer and business confidence data have pointed to a slow rebound in the economy while inflation remained mild, easing the pressure for the central bank to tighten monetary policy quickly.

The quarterly labour cost and employment survey, released earlier in the week, showed wages grew at their slowest pace in nine years in the December quarter while the jobs market stayed weak. [ID:nSGE6102MT]

Separately, data on Thursday showed New Zealand had its highest annual migration gain in more than five years as fewer people left the country. [ID:nWEL003955] (Additional reporting by Gyles Beckford, Adrian Bathgate and Catherine Trevethan; Editing by Ron Popeski)

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