🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

UPDATE 3-New Zealand cuts rates and pledges to keep them low

Published 04/30/2009, 12:43 AM
AUD/NZD
-
TTEF
-

* N.Zealand c.bank cuts key rate by 50 bps to record low

* RBNZ to keep rate at or below present level till late 2010

* C.bank says its cash rate could still move modestly lower

* NZ rates below Australian rates first time since 2003

* NZ dollar, debt tumbles. Aussie hits 7-wk high against kiwi (Adds Australian dollar rise, impact on current account)

By Mantik Kusjanto

WELLINGTON, April 30 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank cut interest rates to a record low on Thursday and pledged to keep them low for more than a year to fight the country's worst ever recession, scotching talk the easing cycle was near an end.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate (OCR) by half a percentage point to 2.5 percent, sending the New Zealand dollar down over 1 percent and debt tumbling.

The yield on June 90-day bank bills dropped 16 basis points to 2.83 percent and swap rates fell sharply.

"The OCR could still move modestly lower over the coming quarters," Governor Alan Bollard said.

Taking its cue from other central banks, such as the Bank of Canada, Bollard said the RBNZ will keep the cash rate "at or below the current level through until the latter part of 2010" to help the economy revive from the global economic downturn.

The comment was seen by analysts as a warning to financial markets not to price in higher rates too soon.

While New Zealand is deep in recession, markets had started to expect higher rates for next year. That forced up borrowing costs, threatening to impede any economic recovery.

"(It) is designed to keep the entire yield curve down and, more importantly, to bring the currency down," said ANZ-National Bank senior markets economist Khoon Goh.

Swap rates fell sharply after the move, with two-year swaps dropping by 26 basis points to 3.35 percent and five-year swaps down 14 basis points to 4.62 percent.

At the end of March, lending rates had spiked more than a percentage point higher as investors started to price in an end to the easing cycle and a move to higher rates. The New Zealand dollar rose through March and in early April.

Still, markets had assumed Bollard would be reluctant to push rates much lower out of concern it would discourage foreign investment on which New Zealand relies to plug its current account gap. Economists said the lower rate should not affect the country's ability to fund its current account deficit, which is close to 9 percent of GDP and had prompted warnings from ratings agencies. [ID:nWEL368620]

"Investors are more concerned with longer-term rates than with the cash rate, and if they demand a premium for lending to NZ, the market will give them one," said Westpac Chief Economist Brendan O'Donovan.

The cut took New Zealand's rates below Australia's key rate for the first time since December 2003.

The 50 basis point gap in Australia's favour saw investors push the Australian dollar to a seven-week high against the New Zealand dollar around NZ$1.2847, up from NZ$1.2602 late on Wednesday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its next policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 3 percent.

RATES STILL LOWER

The RBNZ cut was the seventh since last July and took the cash rate to its lowest level since it was instituted in March 1999. It brought total cuts since last July to 575 basis points.

"That's a clear message to the market that people were pricing in hikes too early. It's an attempt to influence the rates that matter most like mortgage rates, to talk them down," said RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong.

Analysts also now expect the central bank to cut rates again in its efforts to revive the $100 billion economy, which has contracted for four consecutive quarters.

A Reuters poll after Thursday's move showed 11 out of 15 economists expect another 25 basis point cut in June. Three forecast no change and one predicted a 50 basis point cut.

After the rate move, Westpac lowered its six-month fixed housing loan rate by 0.4 percentage points to 5.39 percent.

New Zealand has been in recession since the beginning of 2008, the longest contraction in more than 30 years, and the downturn is expected to last through much of this year.

Bollard said the bank was still expecting some signs of growth later in the year, and he reiterated that it would not be cutting rates to near zero as some other central banks have done.

New Zealand's cash rate compares with official rates of 0.1 percent in Japan, 1.25 percent in the euro zone, and 0-0.25 percent in the United States. LINKS > Analysts' comments on NZ rate cut.............[ID:nWEL391513] > Central bank policy statement..[ID:nWEL000891] > New Zealand dollar steady after fall..........[ID:nWEL365652] > Australian dollar holds hefty gains...........[ID:nSYD364029] (Additional reporting by Gyles Beckford and Adrian Bathgate; Editing by Jan Dahinten)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.