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UPDATE 3-Japan exports weak but show signs of recovery

Published 04/22/2009, 06:45 AM

(For more stories on the Japanese economy, click)

* Japan exports, imports rose in March from February

* First monthly rise in exports in nearly a year

* Exports still around half levels of a year ago

* Annual decline in Japan's exports to China starts to slow (Adds sector details)

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO, April 22 (Reuters) - Japanese exports showed a rare sign of recovery in March, government figures showed on Wednesday, suggesting that the global slump in trade that has pushed the economy into a deep recession may be easing.

Exports were almost half the levels of a year earlier but on a seasonally adjusted basis they rose in March from February, the first monthly pick up since May last year -- welcome news for the world's No. 2 economy battling its worst downturn in half a century.

Sales to China and the United States fell sharply compared with a year earlier, but the falls were smaller than in February. Still, exports to the European Union fell at a record pace.

The annual decline in semiconductor and other electronics parts sales eased slightly in March from February, but autos demand plunged again.

"It will take more time for exports to make a full-fledged rebound as overseas economies won't recover any time soon," said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities.

"But we expect exports to make a moderate pickup near-term with sharp falls having stopped due to easing strains from the global financial shock, falling inventories and big stimulus packages compiled across the globe."

Exports fell 45.6 percent from a year earlier and imports dropped 36.7 percent. Both declines were smaller than forecast and smaller than the record falls in February.

That produced a trade surplus of 11 billion yen ($111.9 million), down 99 percent from a year earlier. Economists had forecasts a 5 billion yen deficit.

Japan's big manufacturers have been hit hard by the worst global downturn since the 1930s. But they expect output to rise in March and April after slashing inventories at a record pace.

Global stock markets have rallied on hopes the world-wide downturn may be nearing its bottom. Tokyo's Nikkei average has gained nearly 24 percent since hitting a 26-year closing low in March.

Such sentiment may be reflected this weekend in a meeting of the financial heads of the Group of Seven rich nations, officials have said.

SIGN OF BOTTOMING OUT

March exports to China dropped 31.5 percent from a year earlier, a smaller fall than in February and January.

Exports to the United States dropped 51.4 percent in March from a year earlier, but the fall was also smaller than the previous month's 58.4 percent decline.

But demand remained weak in the European Union, with shipments to the region falling a record 56.1 percent after a 54.7 percent drop in February.

Slack demand for Japanese cars was largely behind the annual fall in exports.

Auto sales slumped 70 percent in March from a year earlier. The latest figures didn't provide a comparison with previous months, but February data had shown a similar slide.

The slide in auto sales to the United States eased to 69.1 percent from 76.6 percent in February's data, but the slump in shipments to the European Union remained at more than 70 percent.

Global sales of semiconductor and other electronic parts dropped more than 40 percent in March, easing slightly from February's drop of more than 50 percent.

Despite the grim annual numbers, monthly figures painted a different picture. Exports rose 2.2 percent in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the finance ministry said.

In a further sign that the exports slump may have hit a bottom, the Bank of Japan's export index, a closely watched indicator of seasonally adjusted trends, was flat in March from the previous month after falling for six straight months. The central bank will release revisions of the index on Thursday.

"Today's data suggested exports will start recovering in the coming months as inventory adjustments progress overseas as well as in Japan, while demand is picking up in China and business sentiment is improving in the West," said Tatsushi Shikano, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

Despite the upbeat news, the downturn is expected to grip Japan for some time.

The Bank of Japan is set to downgrade its economic and price forecasts in a twice-yearly outlook report on April 30 and media reports have said the government is set to cut its outlook.

Analysts forecast Japan GDP will fall between 3 percent and 5 percent in the fiscal year to March 2010 even accounting for the government's 15.4 trillion yen stimulus package.

BOJ officials say that's basically in line with their own forecasts, but say predictions can differ depending on how the effect of the stimulus package is calculated. The central bank currently forecasts a 2 percent contraction for the year. ($1=98.30 Yen) (Additional reporting by Stanley White, Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Neil Fullick)

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