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UPDATE 3-Japan exports, imports dive as demand shrivels

Published 03/25/2009, 06:06 AM
BARC
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SONY
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* Japan exports, imports log record annual drops

* Trade suffers from weak demand at home and abroad

* Japan posts 1st trade surplus in five months

By Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO, March 25 (Reuters) - Japan's exports posted another record drop in February as global demand for Japanese cars and electronics evaporate amid a deepening global financial crisis, but analysts see little sign of recovery in coming months.

A record fall in imports helped Japan's trade balance swing into surplus for the first time in five months but the data provided little comfort as it showed both domestic and overseas demand crumbling under the weight of the global slowdown.

Analysts expressed hopes that the Chinese government's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus spending package would eventually ease the downturn, which has hammered Asian economies that are heavily reliant on exports for growth.

Exports halved from a year earlier, with shipments to the United States and Europe falling at record rates, dragged down by plunging demand for cars and auto parts.

"Large declines in exports will probably continue for March and April, because global trade is a proxy for the global economy," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital.

"After that, stimulus in the Chinese economy will probably help this negative margin shrink, so a lot is riding on China."

Exports dived a record 49.4 percent in February from a year earlier while imports slid 43.0 percent, showing the effects of a global decline in trade from the global crisis.

Analysts said sagging consumption in Japan was weighing on imports, with lower oil prices and a stronger yen than a year earlier also depressing the value of goods arriving in Japan.

Separate data from the Bank of Japan showed Japan's exports in real terms fell 5.5 percent in February from January to their lowest since April 2002, and real imports dropped 15.9 percent to their lowest since February 2000, helping the real trade balance swing into a surplus.

The Nikkei average slipped 0.1 percent on Wednesday as Sony Corp and other exporters fell after a sharp rally sparked the previous day by a U.S. plan to buy toxic assets from its banks.

CHINA HOPES

The pace of falls in exports to China narrowed for the first time in seven months, sliding 39.7 percent from a year earlier compared with an 45.2 percent fall in January data, although the Lunar New Year may have been a factor. The major holiday in China fell in February last year and January this year.

Nevertheless, some analysts said there were signs the slide in exports may bottom out soon, with semiconductor exports to China rising from January.

The race to the bottom by both imports and exports resulted in a trade surplus of 82.4 billion yen ($841.6 million) in February but analysts saw no joy for the economy from this.

"The decline in imports suggest weakening demand in Japan," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

Waning domestic consumption and overseas demand underlines the pessimism of companies in the world's second-largest economy as they lay off workers and slash capital expenditure.

"Exports to the United States continued to fall sharply. As it will be difficult to know whether the U.S. government's stimulus measures would show positive results in the economy until this summer, I do not see a silver lining for exports to the U.S. for now." Japanese exports to the U.S. fell a record 58.4 percent in February from a year earlier, while shipments to the European Union fell 54.7 percent -- also a record.

Analyst(US$1=97.91 Yen)

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