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UPDATE 3-Japan corporate pick-up means BOJ may eye exit

Published 10/01/2009, 12:14 AM
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* Tankan large manufacturer index rises to minus 33 from -48

* Corporate finance improving, may prompt end of BOJ measures

* Large companies cut capex spending for year to March 2010

* Big manufacturers pessimistic for 5th quarter in row (Adds more comments, background)

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Japanese business morale has improved further from a record low earlier this year and companies said funding conditions were easing, paving the way for the Bank of Japan to phase out its buying of corporate debt.

But the BOJ's closely watched tankan survey also showed companies cutting their capital spending plans more while the overall mood remained pessimistic, suggesting firms are still not sure how sustainable the economic recovery will be.

"Funding conditions for companies have improved sharply compared to the worst period. I think the BOJ is likely to end its corporate debt buying by the end of the fiscal year (in March)," said Junko Nishioka, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities.

The financial conditions index for large companies rose five points to plus 6, marking the second quarter of improvement, although funding remained much tighter for smaller firms.

For graphic tracking companies' funding conditions, click: http://r.reuters.com/dem49d

The quarterly business sentiment survey's main sentiment index for big manufacturers improved to minus 33 in September from minus 48 in June, matching the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists but staying in negative territory for the fifth consecutive quarter.

For graphic tracking Japanese corporate sentiment, click http://r.reuters.com/suj49d

"The headline figures are within expectations and are consistent with market sentiment that the recovery is proceeding but there are uncertainties on the outlook," said David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore.

The BOJ's programmes for buying commercial paper, corporate bonds and offering loans against corporate debt collateral are scheduled to expire in December, though many had thought they would be extended for some time to come.

Some central bank board members have said ending these measures would not mean ending its easy policy, suggesting the bank may indeed be considering letting the programmes expire.

Other central banks have also been looking to roll back their crisis measures. The U.S. Federal Reserve has opted to taper down its buying of U.S. Treasuries and is slowing down its buying of mortgage debt.

Yields on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds edged up after the tankan showed some improvement, but bond prices then recovered, leaving the yield little changed at 1.285 percent, as stocks fell on a stronger yen.

DEBT MARKETS THAW

Japan's corporate debt market has come back to life, with corporate bond issuance hitting a record high of 2.2 trillion yen in June, a sea change from last October when even companies with high credit ratings could not issue bonds.

While improving credit market conditions could prompt the BOJ to end its corporate funding support, the bank is likely to leave interest rates near zero as Japan looks set to stay in deflation.

"Some of the BOJ's measures may be scrapped... But given that concern about deflation is there, interest rates should be kept near zero indefinitely," Cohen said.

Deflation hit a record in the year to August as weak demand adds to the effect of a sharp retreat in oil prices.

Capital spending is already one of the weakest links in the economy now -- suggesting the economy will struggle to pick up momentum in the months ahead.

Large firms plan to cut their capital expenditure by 10.8 percent in the year to March, more than the 9.4 percent cut they projected in the previous survey last quarter.

"The most shocking point there was that companies are still very careful about capital spending," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

"It suggests that corporate sentiment is improving, but companies, especially big companies, are making business moves very cautiously."

Capital spending has been traditionally a growth engine in Japan but has fallen sharply since the global crisis dragged the economy into its worst recession in decades.

"The downward revision in capital spending indicates that uncertainty is strong about the economy's future course once government stimulus at home and abroad runs out, because domestic demand is far from being the main driving force," said Hirotaka Kusaba, an economist at Mizuho Research Institute.

Although the economy pulled out of recession in the second quarter, economists say capital spending is likely to remain soft as companies cut costs to secure profits amid weak demand. (Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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