UPDATE 3-China crude oil imports hit record in September

Published 10/13/2010, 08:30 AM
Updated 10/13/2010, 08:32 AM
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* Sept crude imports rise to record 5.67 million bpd

* Stockpiling, fuel price speculation boost imports

* Jan-Sept crude imports up 24 percent on year

(Updates with IEA figures from report released Wednesday, analyst comment, graphic)

By Chen Aizhu and Jim Bai

BEIJING, Oct 13 (Reuters) - China imported a record amount of crude oil in September, a third more than a year earlier, as demand in the world's fastest growing oil market appeared to maintain a dizzying pace, sparking talk it is building stocks.

The acceleration by the world's second-biggest oil consumer pushed U.S. crude prices up by more than $1 per barrel to as high as $82.82, as it reinforced expectations China will be the single biggest factor in world oil demand growth this year.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency expects China alone to account for 780,000 barrels per day (bpd) of the 2.15 million bpd increase in 2010 world oil consumption, it said in its monthly report on Wednesday.

"Domestic consumption is running strong, if you look at the continuous draws in refined fuel stocks and the car sales number," said a fuel market official with top Asian refiner Sinopec Corp.

But unravelling China's real demand is tricky. Although Beijing's roads are nearing choking point and the giant economy needs fuel to keep growing, the size of September's imports, 15 percent more than August, was more than enough to feed cars and factories.

This suggests at least some oil is being stashed away.

"The need to build up more stockpiles, both commercial and strategic, has always been a factor at play," said the Sinopec official.

ANOTHER SPAIN

In the first eight months of this year China's crude oil supplies from imports and its own production already exceeded the amount refined by an average of 435,000 bpd, implying a solid, although not steady, amount of stockpiling.

In September, China imported 23.29 million tonnes of crude, or 5.67 million bpd, the General Administration of Customs said. The increase from the same month of 2009, when China imported 4.19 million bpd, is equivalent to adding another Spain to world oil consumption.

Assuming data for China's refining runs and oil production does not throw up a big surprise when it is published next week, September's large import order is likely to be seen as evidence that China is filling its oil tanks in earnest.

"It has to be inventory builds," said Bryjnar Bustnes, JPMorgan's head of Asia-Pacific oil and gas research. "I believe consumption growth will be sequentially slow in the next three months, nothing like we saw in the first half. Full year demand will probably come in around 8-9 percent for 2010 versus 2009."

Implied growth in demand in China came in at 7.4 percent in August. That was slower than the double digit growth of the first half of the year, when growth was flattered by comparison with a weak period last year.

WHO'S STOCKPILING?

Oil traders are watching closely for any sign of China buying large volumes of crude oil for its second phase of strategic petroleum reserve tanks, after it finished filling the first set with 102 million barrels of oil in early 2009.

But filling of the second phase, 70 percent bigger than the first and even more secretive, is hard to detect because state-owned oil companies and the private sector have blurred the line, building a "state commercial reserve" which is commercially managed but earmarked for state use.

Industry officials said a more mundane motive may explain the rush to stockpile: independent retailers building fuel stocks on hopes of an increase in the price at the pump.

"Our supplies are getting tighter, as there is this renewed expectation of a price hike," said the Sinopec official.

China, which has linked its domestic pump fuel prices with international crude prices since 2009, last adjusted the levels on June 1, cutting them 3 percent from record highs.

Strong demand growth has led to six consecutive monthly declines in inventories of gasoline, diesel and kerosene held by the country's two top oil firms.

Refineries may have increased runs in an effort to top up those stocks, industry officials said.

The customs data also showed that China maintained its position as a net importer of refined oil products last month, with imports at 2.8 million tonnes and exports at 2.09 million tonnes. Net fuel imports were up 45 percent over August. (1 tonne=7.3 bbls for crude) (Additional reporting by Florence Tan; writing by Tom Miles and Simon Webb, editing by Anthony Barker)

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