* World Bank says Turkey's economy may contract in 2009 or grow 2 percent at best
* Consumer confidence index falls to record low
* Top business group TUSIAD sees 1 percent growth in 2008
(Adds 2008 growth forecast)
By Selcuk Gokoluk
ANKARA, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Turkey's once fast-growing economy could contract in 2009, according to a World Bank forecast, state-run Anatolian news agency said on Friday, and fresh data showed consumer confidence slumping to a record low.
The World Bank's Turkey representative Ulrich Zachau was quoted as saying that developments next year in the Turkish economy could range from a slight contraction to economic growth of two percent as the global financial crisis takes it toll.
The government has an official growth forecast of four percent for 2009, but economists say this is impossible to achieve as the country's exports and industrial output drop sharply.
The Turkish economy grew just 0.5 percent in the third quarter, its lowest rate in six years.
"It is possible that (the rate) will be lower or higher than this, but most probably there will be positive growth at a low rate," Zachau was quoted as saying.
He said unemployment would rise and poverty worsen and the government must act to protect the poor. Unemployment jumped to 10.3 percent in the August to October period from 9.3 percent a year earlier.
Data on Friday showed the consumer confidence index in Turkey falling 7.22 percent month-on-month in November to 68.88 points. It has fallen to new lows in recent months as the global economic crisis intensifies.
"Significant deterioration in the main economic indicators such as industrial production and further worsening both in consumer demand and real sector confidence ... signals a growth level of around one percent for 2008," Oyak Securities said in a note to clients.
Business leaders and economists have warned that Turkey could slip into recession without an IMF deal to support investment and capital inflows into the country.
The country's top business association TUSIAD Chairwoman Arzuhan Dogan Yalcindag predicted contraction in Turkey's economy in the fourth quarter, and 2008's growth to stand at 1 percent, well below a 4 percent government forecast.
"Very low growth rates for two successive years will mean very serious loss of jobs for Turkey," she told a conference, and called for measures to stimulate domestic demand.
Turkey is expected to sign a regular stand-by agreement carrying stringent conditions and giving Ankara automatic access to IMF funds, or a more flexible precautionary deal, which would grant funds only if needed.
Economy Minister Mehmet Simsek told parliament late on Thursday that structural adjustment steps and technical studies required for a new IMF deal would be completed soon.
Turkey's economy has expanded nearly seven percent in the last six years, making it one of most-closely watched emerging market economies. (Additional reporting by Alexandra Hudson and Zerin Elci; editing by Stephen Nisbet)