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UPDATE 2-UK inflation jumps in Oct, set to rise further

Published 11/17/2009, 07:42 AM
Updated 11/17/2009, 07:48 AM

* CPI jump due to statistical base effect

* BoE seen keeping policy loose amid weak recovery

* Services inflation at record low

(Adds detail, comment)

By Fiona Shaikh and Christina Fincher

LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - British inflation accelerated in October, and will probably keep climbing in the coming months as rising oil costs, the weak pound and the reversal of a temporary cut in sales tax keep up the pressure on prices.

The Office for National Statistics said annual consumer price inflation picked up to 1.5 percent last month from a five-year low of 1.1 percent in September.

The increase was mainly due to statistical effects resulting from a sharp drop in fuel prices in October last year not being repeated this year, and had been widely anticipated by analysts.

Tuesday's figures are unlikely to cause undue concern to Bank of England policymakers who had already pencilled in a near-term rise in inflation to well above its 2 percent target and is unlikely to persuade them to tighten policy any time soon.

"I don't think this is anything that will worry the Monetary Policy Committee too much," said Amit Kara, economist at UBS. "The MPC has highlighted that inflation is going to be very volatile in the near term."

Worries about the longer-term health of the economy prompted the central bank to pump an extra 25 billion pounds into the economy this month and Governor Mervyn King said policymakers had an open mind on whether more may be needed.

Still, the pound rose a quarter of a cent against the dollar and hit a two-month high against the euro after the data, adding to gains after BoE policymaker Andrew Sentance last night sounded upbeat on Britain's recovery prospects.

PRICE PRESSURES

The ONS said the largest upward effect on consumer prices last month came from transport, where fuel and lubricant prices fell by 0.7 percent, after a monthly decline of 6.1 percent in October 2008.

The price of oil has more than doubled from a low of $33 struck at the end of last year, and could drive the price of petrol up by around 2 pence to 1.10 pound by the end of this year, according to leading British motoring organisations.

Some analysts reckon the rebound in commodity prices, combined with a 25 percent depreciation in the pound over the last two years, and the reversal of Britain's temporary cut in value-added tax could drive CPI to as high as 3 percent soon.

However, Britain's economy is recovering only very slowly from its longest downturn since World War 2 and policymakers reckon the large degree of slack in the economy will contain inflation over the next year or so, requiring them to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent for longer.

Indeed, inflation in the services sector -- which accounts for around two-thirds of economic output -- fell to its lowest on record at 2.3 percent in October, according to the ONS.

And Retail Price Inflation, a gauge that includes housing costs and is used as the basis for many wage deals, remained in deflationary territory at -0.8 percent, although that was sharply higher than September's reading of -1.4 percent.

"As services prices take longer to adjust to changes in the economy than goods prices, that strongly suggests that underlying disinflationary pressures are still lurking in the shadows," said Colin Ellis, economist at Daiwa Securities.

"That means that as long as medium-term expectations remain anchored, the MPC should keep policy in accommodative mode for some time to come." (Editing by Mike Peacock and Andy Bruce)

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