(Adds analysts' comments, details, background)
By Daren Butler
ISTANBUL, March 19 (Reuters) - Turkey's Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rates by 100 basis points to a fresh record low on Thursday, as expected, and said any further rate cuts would be measured in scale.
Analysts said the move narrowed the scope for more monetary easing, warning further rate cuts could harm the already ailing lira currency in the absence of a new loan accord with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
After its monthly monetary policy committee meeting the bank cut the borrowing rate to 10.50 from 11.50 percent and cut the lending rate to 13.0 from 14.0 percent. In a Reuters poll of 19 analysts, all expected a cut and 14 saw a 100 basis point cut.
"The committee took the view that further rate cuts may be moderate and that depending on conditions it may be necessary to keep downward flexibility in monetary policy for a long time," the bank said in a statement.
The bank has cut the benchmark borrowing rate by 625 basis points since November in response to a sharp economic slowdown.
"There is still IMF uncertainty and fiscal policy is unsupportive of further rate cuts, so there's not a lot of room going further," said Dresdner Kleinwort economist Ozlem Arpac.
"The bank is confident about inflation and they are still clearly conscious about growth, but on the fiscal side they are not getting any help from the government due to elections," she said.
Turkey's government has been holding protracted talks with the IMF on securing a new loan accord to bolster the economy and replace a $10 billion deal which expired in May. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday the talks would be completed after March 29 local elections.
The economy is now believed to be heading into recession this year as the global financial crisis batters both exports and domestic demand.
LIRA RISK
The lira
But analysts warned the latest cut could add further pressure on the currency after recent weakness.
"They have indicated they wanted to keep the currency stable by relaunching foreign currency selling auctions so continuing to cut rates aggressively against that backdrop seems a risky strategy," said Standard Chartered economist Manik Narain.
The bank said the latest rate cuts had reduced the probability of end-2009 inflation being clearly below target. It had cut rates last month on the expectation that inflation would be below the end-2009 target of 7.5 percent.
The consumer price index fell below 10 percent for the first time since April 2007 in January and fell further in February to an annual 7.73 percent, helped by a sharp decline in oil and commodities prices.
It said the recovery in economic activity was expected to take time and that downward pressure on inflation will continue.
According to the bank, inflation may rise temporarily in March due to a rapid rise in unprocessed food prices but that it would then return to a downward trend. (Additional reporting by Alex Hudson and Thomas Grove)