* Bank says rates must stay low for a long time
* Inflation to show marked rise over next two months
* Sees moderate pace of recovery in economic activity
(Adds details, analyst quote)
By Thomas Grove
ISTANBUL, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Turkey's Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected, and said rates must stay low for a long time.
Anlaysts said that although the bank had added a reference to higher inflation in the short term, it maintained the view that the pace of recovery in economic activity was moderate and time was needed for an improvement in unemployment conditions.
The bank said after its monetary policy meeting that it kept the borrowing rate at 6.5 percent and the lending rate at 9.0 percent.
In a Reuters poll, 21 economists unanimously said they expected the bank to keep its benchmark interest rates steady for the second month following a cycle that slashed rates by 10.25 points in the year from Nov 2008, when Turkey's economy faced a steep downturn.
The bank emphasized also in December that it was necessary to keep rates low for a long time.
"We see that the line about holding rates low for a long time has been preserved. Though the board makes a warning on the inflation spike in future months, there is no change in its policy stance," said Inan Demir, Chief Economist at Finansbank.
The bank said recent data indicated the economy was continuing a period of moderate recovery, but that uncertainties over aggregate demand lingered and that it would take a long time to achieve a lasting recovery in employment conditions.
"The board, which sees uncertainties regarding the strength of the recovery, emphasised that that interest rates must be kept low for a long time," the monetary policy board said in the statement.
The bank also said that credit markets have improved with the better perception of global risk.
HIGHER INFLATION OVER NEXT TWO MONTHS
The bank said that inflation would see a marked rise in the next two months due to tax adjustments and the base effect, but added that inflation was in line with targets in the medium term.
Turkey boosted taxes on alcohol, tobacco, petrol and diesel from the start of this year.
Furthermore analysts have warned of inflation spikes as Turkey comes out of a deep recession that saw its economy shrink by 10.5 percent in the first half of last year as domestic demand and exports were hit by the global economic crisis.
Figures for third-quarter gross domestic product however showed a 3.3 percent contraction, pointing to a slow recovery, and the government has said it expects to see growth in fourth quarter data.
The government expects the economy to have shrunk six percent in 2009 and grow 3.5 percent in 2010, though that figure could be higher if Ankara agrees to a stand-by deal with the International Monetary Fund, analysts say.
The lira