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UPDATE 2-Spanish May consumer confidence at 13-mth high

Published 06/03/2009, 07:16 AM

(Adds ICO, analyst comment, PMI services data)

By Andrew Hay

MADRID, June 3 (Reuters) - Spanish consumer confidence rose to a 13-month high in May as jobless claims eased, though Spaniards' spirits remained depressed by historical standards.

Spain's Official Credit Institute (ICO) said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 63.8 points in May from 61.9 points in April as the majority of households saw the economy improving within six months.

That contrasted with separate data showing the decline in Spanish service sector deepened in May. [ID:nLAG003472].

"The growth in the confidence indicator suggests the fall in gross domestic product (GDP) and private consumption will be less acute in the coming quarters," ICO said in a statement after the first year-on-year rise in the index since the financial crisis began in summer 2007.

The ICO data mirrored jumps in consumer confidence in the United States and the wider euro zone and the state agency saw it continuing to slowly improve in the next months.

It followed the first fall in Spanish jobless claimants in 14 months during May after Spain's government created 140,000 short-term public works jobs and firms hired temporary employees for the summer tourist season.

The positive data could not come too soon for Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero as polls show the ruling party trailing the opposition conservative Popular Party ahead of June 7 European elections.

Zapatero and his ministers said Wednesday's jobless numbers showed a change in direction for Spain's economy after it had delivered over 60 percent of the increase in euro zone unemployment in the last year, according to Eurostat data.

Economists said Spain's recession was easing but saw a long slog ahead before the euro zone's fourth largest economy returned to growth.

"Government measures have had an impact on GDP but this doesn't mark a change of trend," said economist Carlos Maravall, at Madrid's AFI consultancy, who expects a return to quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in 2011.

The European Commission expects Spain to be the last member of the European Union to exit recession, probably in 2011, due to the twin shocks of the global crisis and the collapse of a decade-long housing boom.

Spanish unemployment is the highest in the European Union at 18.1 percent in April, according to EU data. The European Commission expects it to top 20 percent next year as Spain struggles to find substitutes for house building and credit-driven consumer spending that allowed Spain to outperform euro zone rivals for the past ten years.

ICO President, Aurelio Martinez, told reporters the May confidence figure suggested GDP could shrink by 1.3-1.5 percent in the second quarter, quarter-on-quarter, versus a fall of 1.9 percent between January and March. He said European Commission expectations Spain would not return to quarter-on-quarter GDP growth until 2011 were reasonable.

Though the ICO confidence index is back at levels of April 2008, after it slumped to a record low of 46.3 in July last year, it remains far from a reading above 100, which indicates optimism.

Martinez said the index should continue to make small gains over the next few months after jumps of 5.1 percentage points in March and an 8.2 point leap in April.

"It's reasonable to expect the increases to ease in coming months, although the upside trend will continue," he said.

(Additional reporting by Manuel Maria Ruiz; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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