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UPDATE 2-S.Korea suffers record export fall as downturn bites

Published 02/01/2009, 01:26 AM

(Updates with analysts, more details)

By Yoo Choonsik

SEOUL, Feb 1 (Reuters) - South Korean exports in January shrank by a record pace as global downturn deepened, putting pressure on the government and central bank to take stronger steps to shore up Asia's fourth-largest economy.

South Korea is home to the world's leading producers of computer chips, mobile phones and ships and is the first big Asian exporter to report trade data each month, providing an early indication of the state of global demand.

Exports in January fell a record 32.8 percent over a year earlier, worse than analysts had expected, while imports sagged 32.1 percent as consumers cut back spending amid fears the country was rapidly sliding into recession.

"Exports will continue to fall by double-digit rates at least by the end of the third quarter as the global economy will remain sluggish for quite a long time," said Lee Sang-jae, economist at Hyundai Securities.

The data will likely reinforce expectations that South Korea's central bank will cut interest rates for the sixth time in four months at its Feb. 12 policy meeting to help boost domestic demand and cushion cooling demand from abroad.

The gloomy export outlook also bodes ill for the ailing won currency whose freefall for several weeks until late November had briefly raised concerns that the country could fall into a fresh financial crisis. The won has lost more than 30 percent of its value against the dollar over the past year.

Japan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and a number of other export-reliant Asian economies have also reported a collapse in exports in recent months as consumer demand buckles in the United States and Europe.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast South Korea's exports would drop 28.1 percent in January over a year earlier and imports by 33.5 percent.

Exports totalled $21.69 billion in January while imports stood at $24.66, producing a trade deficit of $2.97 billion, according to figures seen on the South Korean customs agency's website (http://www.customs.go.kr) on Sunday

South Korea posted a revised $0.54 billion trade surplus in December 2008.

The figures appeared on the website a day before the Ministry of Knowledge Economy is due to officially release trade figures at 0100 GMT on Monday.

EFFORTS TO LIFT DOMESTIC DEMAND

The Bank of Korea has already more than halved its base rate since early October to a record low of 2.5 percent in a bid to help the local economy avert slipping into its first recession since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

The government has offered stimulus packages and tax cuts valued at about $100 billion, or about 15 percent of the country's annual gross domestic product, but there have been few signs yet that the efforts are reviving the economy.

President Lee Myung-bak, whose popularity has plunged since taking office about a year ago, has said his government would take additional steps if necessary to make up for the damage from the deepening global slump.

He replaced two of his top economic and financial officials last month to counter mounting criticism that his government was not doing its job effectively in dealing with the downturn.

South Korea's top government research agency, which has a 0.7 percent growth forecast for this year, warned last week that the local economy could suffer a steeper downturn than previously feared due to the deepening slump in developed markets.

South Korea's gross domestic product contracted a seasonally adjusted 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the third quarter, the second-biggest loss on record.

A rising number of private-sector experts expect South Korea's economy to contract by as much as 3 percent this year, joining Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong in recession. Export powerhouse China has also reported rapidly slowing economic growth.

The slowing economy, along with corporate restructuring, is expected to hit the South Korea job market hard as the economy needs to grow about 5 percent to prevent further job losses, economists said.

* For a list of recent emergency measures to boost the economy, see (Additional reporting by Cheon Jong-woo; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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