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UPDATE 2-S.Korea exports rise for first time in 13 mths

Published 11/30/2009, 10:21 PM
Updated 11/30/2009, 10:27 PM

* Nov exports post first annual rise in 13 months

* Asia's first major export economy to unveil Nov data

* Data bodes well for most other Asian economies

* Sustainable recovery still hinges on major Western markets (Updates with new details, analyst, markets)

By Cheon Jong-woo and Yoo Choonsik

SEOUL, Dec 1 (Reuters) - South Korean exports in November rose for the first time in 13 months as Asia's economies continued to build up steam, but analysts said a more sustainable recovery still hinged on demand in the region's major Western markets.

Exports in November rose 18.8 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said on Tuesday, although the headline figure was below market expectations as demand from advanced economies remained depressed.

Asia's other exporting economies will likely join South Korea soon in emerging from steep annual declines, buoyed in large measure by China's rapid recovery, but Japan could suffer for an extended period as the strong yen erodes its competitiveness, analysts said.

"Low year-ago figures and resilient demand from within the region should keep annual growth rates high for the time being and this will be the case for most countries (in Asia)," said Lee Sang-jae, senior economist at Hyundai Securities.

"But the advanced economies are still far from a full recovery and, so, this will affect countries like Japan that are dependent relatively more on these markets."

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast South Korean exports in November would rise 20.9 percent over a year earlier [ID:nSEO357760]

Taiwan reported last week its first annual rise in 13 months in export orders received in October, suggesting that exports by one of South Korea's close rivals would also emerge from the year-long slump soon. [ID:nSHA304498]

Stock investors have already scaled back their bets on Japanese exporters on fears that the country's key industries would be hit hard by the stronger yen and stubbornly weak demand in the U.S. and European markets.

Data on Monday showed manufacturing and business activity picked up in parts of the United States last month, though economists said continued weakness in the labour market will constrain growth. [ID:nN30420743]

For a graphic on South Korean exports, double-click: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/129/KR_EXP1209.gif

CHINA LEADS

The economy ministry said in a statement South Korean exports to its largest market, China, leaped 52.2 percent for the first 20 days of November over the comparable 2008 period against a modest 6.1 percent gain in shipments to the United States.

China and the United States account for one-third of South Korean exports, and electronics and automobiles make up about 40 percent of the country's global shipments.

Imports and findings from a private survey, also released on Tuesday, shed more rays of hope for South Korea's domestic demand as purchases of foreign consumer goods and machinery rose sharply while manufacturing companies hired more workers.

South Korean imports of capital goods, such as production equipment, rose 25.9 percent for the first 20 days of November over a year earlier and consumer goods imports for the same period jumped 22.7 percent, the economy ministry said.

South Korea will announce details for the full month about two weeks later.

The Markit Economics Ltd said its survey of purchasing managers at South Korean manufacturing companies found the sector's business activity expanded for a ninth consecutive month in November and at a faster pace than in October.

A sub-index on employment rose to a seasonally adjusted 53.62 in November, the highest since January 2008, from 51.95 in October. A reading above 50 means expansion during the month.

Despite the largely positive set of data, analysts said uncertainty over the recovery in advanced economies and still modest monthly growth in exports would persuade South Korea's central bank to keep interest rates low for some time.

The Bank of Korea expressed concerns in November that the global economic outlook was still unclear. That statement, along with signs of a stabilising domestic housing market, has prompted investors to scale back chances of an early interest rate increase.

It held the 7-day repurchase agreement rate steady at record-low 2.0 percent for nine consecutive months and plans to next review the rate on Dec. 10. (Editing by Jonathan Hopfner & Kim Coghill) ((choonsik.yoo@thomsonreuters.com; +82 2 3704 5580; Reuters Messaging: choonsik.yoo.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))

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