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UPDATE 2-S.Korea exports rise but no durable revival yet

Published 06/01/2009, 01:16 AM
Updated 06/01/2009, 01:25 AM

* Daily exports rise for fourth straight month

* Pace of daily exports rises at slowest since Feb

* Exports and imports drop more than expected (Recasts with daily export figures, analysts)

By Cheon Jong-woo and Seo Eun-kyung

SEOUL, June 1 (Reuters) - South Korea's daily export value in May rose for the fourth straight month, a further sign of improvement in the global economy though economists said it did not mean a lasting recovery had arrived.

"The global economy is stabilising backed by massive stimulus packages and demand is also reviving by some degree. But it is far from a recovery," said Kwon Yong-sun, a Nomura economist.

The data came as China's manufacturing industry continued to expand moderately in May on the back of improving export orders, in the latest sign that that the world's third-largest economy is stabilising.

But with South Korea's exports and imports down more than expected and as daily exports recorded their slowest growth since turning positive in February analysts were somewhat less hopeful of an early recovery in Asia's fourth-largest economy.

The value of exports per working day -- a measure analysts and government officials use to assess the monthly change in exports -- rose slightly to $1.28 billion in May from $1.27 billion in April. The daily exports value has risen since January it stood at $990 million.

The figures came after U.S. data showed the world's top economy shrank slightly less in the first quarter than estimated.

"We have mixed data on the global economy. But in overall, we have more data showing the economy is getting better, although it is hard to have hopes for a quick recovery," said Kim Jae-eun, an economist at Hana Daetoo Securities.

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South Korea's exports in May fell 28.3 percent from a year ago, missing a 23.2 percent fall forecast in a Reuters poll, while imports declined 40.4 percent over a year ago, also more than expectations for a 36.3 percent loss, the data showed.

Foreign sales are expected to keep falling, but the decline is seen easing in June due to more working days, the ministry said. The data cemented views that the central bank will keep interest rates at a record low 2.00 percent, analysts said.

"Interest rates will likely be kept at the current level at least until the end of the year. There is some talk about excess liquidity, but helping the economy recover is a priority," Goh You-sun, an economist at Daewoo Securities said.

Most big South Korean firms do not expect a recovery in the near future as the economic slump continues to depress exports, a separate private survey showed.

South Korea posted a $5.15 billion trade surplus in May, compared with a revised $5.79 billion the previous month.

The government expects the trade surplus in coming months to fall on a recovery in the won and on higher oil prices, an official said.

Sales to China, the country's biggest foreign market, fell an estimated 22.8 percent during the first 20 days of May from a year earlier, compared with a 19.0 percent drop in all of April. A majority of exports to China are re-exported.

Exports to the United States declined 20.0 percent during the first 20 days of May over a year ago, compared with a 22.7 percent fall in April. (Editing by Jonathan Thatcher & Jan Dahinten)

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