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UPDATE 2-Russian stocks, rouble rally to multi-month highs

Published 05/07/2009, 10:44 AM
UBSN
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TGT
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* Russian stocks, rouble set fresh peaks

* Boosted by oil prices, investor risk appetite

* Rally comes as Medvedev marks 1st anniversary as president

(Adds c.bank interventions, CDS, updates prices)

By Toni Vorobyova and Olga Popova

MOSCOW, May 7 (Reuters) - Russia's stock indexes hit seven- month peaks on Thursday, while the rouble set 3-1/2 month highs thanks to strong oil prices and renewed investor appetite for emerging markets.

The rally in Russian assets should bring some cheer to President Dmitry Medvedev, who on Thursday marks the one-year anniversary of his time in office as Russia struggles through its first recession in a decade.

"The real economy is tough, the data that's coming out on employment and GDP (gross domestic product) points to things still being very bad. But on a corporate level Russia is holding up fairly well", said Renaissance Capital analyst Tom Mundy.

"The rouble looks pretty stable, the oil price seems pretty well supported and that's made a more reasonable case for investors to get into Russia ... Markets do lead the economy so it's definitely encouraging."

Russia's benchmark, dollar-denominated RTS index broke above 900 points for the first time in seven months on Thursday. By 1350 GMT, it was up 4.9 percent at 941.15.

"The RTS is now 11.5 percent away from our mid-year target, having extended the rally from the late January low to 75 percent," Uralsib analyst Chris Weafer said in a research note.

"So long as global markets avoid a big correction and oil stays anywhere above the $50 per barrel level then that target looks very achievable this month."

A Reuters poll last month showed the RTS ending the year at 1,000 points

The MICEX index, an indicator of more liquid rouble trade, breached 1,000 for the first time since Oct. 2, 2008, taking its gains for the year-to-date to 67 percent.

By comparison, the MSCI emerging markets index is up just 26 percent since the start of 2007 while China's Shanghai Composite Index has gained 43 percent.

EXTERNAL BACKDROP HELPS

The renewed confidence in Russian assets comes after investors fled in droves in the second half of 2008, spooked by falling oil prices, high-profile corporate wrangles, a brief war with Georgia, a depreciating rouble and economic problems.

But the central bank has managed to stabilise the rouble and a recovery in the oil price has helped lure back investors.

Russia's Urals oil export blend rose to six-month highs about $56.5 a barrel this week, more than $15 above the level factored into this year's government budget.

The rouble firmed to 37.42 against a euro-dollar basket, its strongest since late January. Dealers said the central bank bought about $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion on the currency market on Thursday in a bid to slow down rouble appreciation.

Data showed it bought $8.2 billion in April.

Russia's yield premium narrowed to 422 basis points, compared with 747 basis points at end-2008. The cost of ensuring Russian debt against a possible default was at its lowest since early October, credit default swaps showed.

In the stock market, Russia's two largest banks were among the top gainers. Sberbank added 9 percent and VTB rose 7 percent as the sector took heart from encouraging signs about the health of U.S. banks.

Higher oil prices boosted heavily-weighted oil major LUKOIL more than 3 percent.

"The external backdrop helps a lot," said Maxim Gulevich, executive director of equity trading at UBS. (Additional reporting by Yelena Fabrichnaya; Editing by Karen Foster and Andrew Macdonald) ($1=32.88 Rouble)

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