*Russia cuts key rate by 25 bps to 10.50 percent
*Further cuts will depend on inflation trends
*Low oil demand raises risk of rouble volatility
(Adds details, background, quotes)
By Yelena Fabrichnaya and Lidia Kelly
MOSCOW, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank on Monday cut its key interest rates by another 25 basis points to stimulate lending, although it also warned the rouble was at risk of increased volatility due to unpredictable oil prices.
In a move widely flagged by senior central bankers, the bank said it was cutting its benchmark refinancing rate to 10.50 percent, the sixth such cut since April bringing total cuts to pull the economy out of recession to 250 basis points.
"The Bank of Russia sees the trend of easing inflation in year-on-year terms in coming months as sustainable," the central bank said in a statement on its Web site www.cbr.ru, adding any further cuts would depend on trends on inflation, manufacturing and credit activity.
The central bank has struggled to get its rate cuts passed on to companies and consumers by a debt-laden banking sector, but the economy grew by 7.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period, and there are signs bank lending rates are coming down.
The central bank's gradual cuts have led to a drop in corporate lending rates by 120 basis points in June-July, said Alexandra Evtifyeva, senior economist at VTB Capital in Moscow, adding this "suggests that the efficiency of the central bank's rate policy has increased this year."
Despite the return to quarterly growth, the second quarter still showed a 10.9 percent contraction year-on-year.
On Friday, central bank first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev told Reuters there was a "theoretical possibility" of another 100 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, which would mean 75 basis points in addition to Monday's cut.
Central Bank Chairman Sergei Ignatyev said last week that 2009 inflation should be significantly below the official forecast of 11.6-12.0 percent, after August data showed flat consumer prices -- first such recording in four years.
SHORT-TERM RISKS TO ROUBLE
The central bank also warned that despite signals of revival in the global economy, the demand for crude oil -- Russia's chief export -- remains relatively low, which carries the risks of high fluctuations in oil prices.
"And this in turn (can cause) volatility in the rouble rate," the central bank said.
In the longer term, however, the rouble should hold firm, government officials say.
Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told Reuters on Monday that the rouble's rate should not change considerably over the next three years, even as the central bank moves towards a free float.
"I think fundamentals will allow the rouble to be fairly stable," Kudrin said.
The rouble closed Monday at 37.21 against the euro-dollar basket, after hitting a six-week high on Friday of 36.98 (Additional reporting by Toni Vorobyova; writing by Lidia Kelly; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)