UPDATE 2-Romania holds rates, politics key for next move

Published 09/29/2010, 09:04 AM
Updated 09/29/2010, 09:08 AM

* Keeps rates at 6.25 percent as widely expected

* Stuck between high inflation, weak economy

* Political risks could force a hike in November

* Leu unfazed by decision, down 0.1 percent on day

(Adds cbank statement, pensions vote delayed)

By Radu Marinas and Marius Zaharia

BUCHAREST, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Romania's central bank left borrowing costs flat at 6.25 percent as expected on Wednesday, with rate-setters unable to help a weak economy while political risks still threaten market sentiment.

A court ruling on a pension reform bill, key for an International Monetary Fund-led 20 billion euro bailout, was delayed by a week on Wednesday. A rejection, seen as the more likely outcome, would likely hit markets and increase chances for a rate hike in November.

Even if the bill is cleared by the court, the fragile coalition government of Prime Minister Emil Boc is set to face a tight battle during a no-confidence vote in parliament likely in late October and the uncertainty will keep investors on edge.

The central bank had no space to move rates as inflation stood about three percentage points above the upper limit of its 2.5-4.5 percent target in August, due to a July value added tax hike that is also putting a brake on the economy.

"It's clear that they had no reason to move on rates," said Ionut Dumitru, chief economist at Raiffeisen Bank in Bucharest.

"Political risk is very important for the next move, because if it materialises it means problems with the IMF and weakening pressure on the leu."

Poland's central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in a decision also due on Wednesday.

INFLATION SPIKE

The spike in inflation is expected to last until the second half of next year due to the base effect and the bank has made clear that its temporary nature meant rates would not be hiked unless the second round effects were significant.

The central bank said inflation had been marginally below forecast, but second round effects from the VAT rise and any failure to cut the budget deficit still pose risks to price growth.

A rate hike would also further delay an economic recovery, which is lagging central European peers as Romania is now expected to return to growth only in 2011.

The leu currency was flat after the decision to leave rates unchanged, as it was widely expected by the market, and was trading down 0.1 percent on the day at 4.269 per euro by 1238 GMT.

All analysts polled by Reuters last week expected the central bank to leave borrowing costs flat at a record low for the third meeting in a row following 400 basis points worth of easing since the start of last year. (Additional reporting by Ioana Patran; Writing by Sam Cage; Editing by Ron Askew)

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