* Government hopes that growth can slash deficit - analysts
* Election calendar makes spending cuts politically tricky
(Adds details, analysts, EC report)
By Gabriela Baczynska and Kuba Jaworowski
WARSAW, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Poland's updated euro convergence plan estimates economic growth of 3.4 percent growth in 2010, 4.5 percent next year and 4.2 percent in 2012, TVN CNBC said on Wednesday, higher than previous government and market forecasts.
Analysts said the report, if confirmed, suggested the government was being overly optimistic about recovery in the hope that it will not have to impose painful spending cuts ahead of elections due this year and next.
Poland, the only member of the 27-nation European Union not to have gone through a recession during the global financial crisis, expanded by 1.7 percent in 2009 but faces a rising deficit and debt which analysts say demand tough fiscal reforms.
A fiscal consolidation plan published last week that envisages reducing the general government deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2012 also contained mostly longer-term measures that fail to address the need for more immediate action, they noted.
"Such an approach only confirms that the planned fall of deficit to 3 percent of GDP ... is based mainly on the expected improvement in the overall economic situation while the proposed ... reforms do not reduce the structural deficit significantly," said Rafal Benecki, senior economist at ING Bank in Warsaw.
However, in a report sure to be welcomed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centre-right government, the European Commission said on Wednesday it was confident that Poland would be able to reduce its deficit to below the EU's 3 percent ceiling in 2012.
Warsaw's growth expectations for 2010 have evolved from a conservative 1.2 percent forecast in the budget to above 2 percent recently suggested by Tusk and even 2.5 percent hinted at by Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski.
TOO OPTIMISTIC?
"There is certainly a lot of upside to growth from here. However I think they have now flipped from being overly pessimistic through last year to now being overly optimistic," said Peter Attard Montalto, analyst at Nomura Bank in London.
On Tuesday, the centre-right government failed to approve an updated euro convergence plan, which could serve as an anchor for the fiscal shakeup, because of the junior coalition party's reservations about planned pension reform.
Marek Sawicki, agriculture minister and a member of the junior coalition partner Peasant's Party, said the plan could be approved on Wednesday.
"The convergence plan will most likely include only vague ideas," Benecki said, adding it was "obvious" that the approach of elections had sapped the government's reforming zeal.
Poland's rising general government deficit and public debt pose a threat not only to Warsaw's euro zone entry plans but also to economic recovery if debt safety levels are breached and mandatory painful fiscal cuts are triggered.
Under Polish law, the government would have to introduce varying degrees of budget tightening when public debt tops 50, 55 and 60 percent of GDP, even though those levels are not particularly high compared to some other EU countries.
The debt to GDP ratio is seen coming in just below 50 percent in 2009 and some analysts warn that it could top 55 percent this year, especially as Warsaw now expects its 2010 general government deficit to stand at 6.9-7.0 percent of GDP.
Poles will elect a president in the autumn and a new parliament next year. Tusk's pro-market, pro-euro Civic Platform (PO) is well placed to win both elections, opinion polls show. (Editing by Gareth Jones and Stephen Nisbet)