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UPDATE 2-Pimco's Gross says G7 won't drive global growth

Published 01/26/2010, 05:09 PM

(Recasts lead, adds asset allocation, performance)

By Al Yoon

NEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Investors should shun Britain and shy away from government debt of some other Group of Seven nations because heavy borrowing threatens to curb growth, according to Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, who described Britain's public finances as explosive.

Gross, in his February investment outlook posted on the website of Pacific Investment Management Co on Tuesday, recommended shifting assets to Asia and developing countries and on the sovereign debt front said he favored Canada.

The G7 industrialized nations have "lost their position as drivers of the global economy" and will likely reel for years from the effects of increasing indebtedness, Gross said.

Britain is a "must to avoid" because of its high debt, which could devalue the pound, he said. "Gilts are resting on a bed of nitroglycerin."

The most vulnerable countries are those whose public debt may exceed 90 percent of gross domestic product within a few years, which could slow GDP by 1 percent or more, Gross said.

Other countries where rising government debt threatens to slow growth -- depicted by Gross within a "ring of fire" -- are Ireland, Spain, France, the United States, Italy, Greece and Japan.

Choices in government debt could have the biggest influence on Pimco's Total Return Fund, whose assets grew more than 50 percent in 2009 to $201.7 billion. Gross had allocated nearly a third of the fund's assets to government-related assets as of December -- the most of all asset classes -- compared with 24 percent in June and 9 percent a year earlier, according to Pimco's website.

The Total Return Fund gained 13.83 percent in 2009, beating its benchmark, the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index, by 7.9 percentage points, according to the website.

Gross, in panning British gilts, said the nation's interest rates are artificially influenced by accounting standards, which last year led to long-term real rates of 0.5 percent and lower.

To Gross, Germany is the safest, most liquid sovereign debt alternative, but said he would prefer to invest in Canada where the liquidity and yield is adequate.

Money managers looking for growth should buy assets in Asia and developing countries where there is promise of consumer spending, national debt is low and trade surpluses mean years of reserves, he said. Less risky fixed-income assets should also be concentrated in those regions, but weaker liquidity and less developed financial markets mean most bond money cannot abandon G7 nations, he added.

He said Asian and developing countries with lower debt levels are less prone to asset bubbles, making them also less prone to the negative aspects of bubble bursting.

Gross said he was influenced by a study of the financial crisis by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, two prominent academic economists, which concluded that the legacy of banking crises is an increase in public debt beyond the cost of bailouts. On average, a country's debt nearly doubles within three years following a crisis, Gross said, citing the study. (Editing by Leslie Adler)

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