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UPDATE 2-OPEC sees oil use falling further, risks to price

Published 05/13/2009, 09:55 AM
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* OPEC sees 2009 global oil demand down 1.57 mln bpd

* OPEC output up 0.22 mln bpd in April, 1st rise since July

* OPEC April compliance 77 pct, versus revised 82 pct March

* Prices above $50 "due more to sentiment than fundamentals"

(Adds detail)

By Christopher Johnson

LONDON, May 13 (Reuters) - World oil demand is still shrinking as the global economy contracts, OPEC said on Wednesday, adding that a rise in oil prices reflected sentiment rather than fundamentals, which were far from balanced.

Despite falling demand for oil and promises by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut output, the producer group said its own production actually increased last month, suggesting rising prices may have encouraged its members to pump more.

OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report that its oil output, excluding Iraq, rose to 25.81 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, up from 25.59 million bpd in March.

It was the first rise in OPEC output since July last year.

The group said global oil demand would drop 1.57 million bpd in 2009 to average 84.03 million bpd. Its previous forecast was for demand to fall by 1.37 million bpd.

OPEC still expects higher global oil demand this year than the International Energy Agency, adviser to 28 industrialised countries, which last month forecast consumption this year at 83.4 million bpd.

Demand is falling fast in the developed nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), but the global downturn has also curbed previously rapid demand growth in developing countries such as China and India.

World oil demand contracted year-on-year by a record 2.4 million bpd in the first quarter of this year with about 95 percent of the total decline attributed to the OECD, OPEC said.

"CONSIDERABLE RISKS"

Oil prices hit a record high of almost $150 a barrel in July last year, supported by expectations of strong demand from the developing world, but then tumbled to lows beneath $35 in December as the global downturn took hold.

Oil prices have recovered since December and hit a six-month high above $60 per barrel on Tuesday on early signs the economic slowdown might not be as severe as previously thought.

But the OPEC report cautioned that the recent improvement in market sentiment as prices have risen did not necessarily reflect the realities of demand and supply.

"Prices have remained above $50 per barrel due more to market sentiment than fundamentals. Considerable risks remain as oil market fundamentals are far from balanced due to the persistent contraction in demand and growing supply overhang."

U.S. light crude oil futures prices fell after the OPEC report was released, trading around $58.60 per barrel by 1315 GMT, down 25 cents from Tuesday's close, after earlier hitting a high of $59.90.

OPEC has promised to cut 4.2 million bpd, equal to about 5 percent of daily world demand, from its output levels since September to try to support prices.

But the rise in OPEC output in April meant the group moved further away from its goal of reducing output, complying with 77 percent of its pledged supply cuts in April, versus 82 percent in March, according to Reuters calculations based on OPEC data.

The producer group, which pumps more than a third of the world's oil, held its output quotas steady when it last met in March, but will meet again on May 28 in Vienna to reassess the market.

It saw demand for OPEC oil this year falling by 2.2 million bpd from 2008 to around 28.81 million bpd, with the biggest decline in the second quarter of the year and a possible slow recovery towards the end of the year. (Editing by William Hardy)

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