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UPDATE 2-NZ escapes recession, hopes for post-quake rebound later in 2011

Published 03/23/2011, 09:41 PM
Updated 03/23/2011, 09:45 PM
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* Economy posts tepid growth on construction, manufacturing

* Annual growth slows to 0.8 pct as forecast

* Data backs RBNZ's rate cut, no rise seen before year end

* NZ dollar firms, debt prices ease (Adds graphic link, comment)

By Mantik Kusjanto

WELLINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) - New Zealand's economy grew marginally in the fourth quarter, narrowly avoiding a slip back into recession and backing the central bank's decision to cut interest rates after February's devastating Christchurch earthquake.

"The focus now is on how quickly economic activity rebounds from first quarter weakness," said Goldman Sachs economist Philip Borkin, who expects the central bank to resume tightening policy again early next year.

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in the Oct-Dec quarter, following a 0.2 percent contraction in the period ended Sept 30, which was the first dip in six quarters, according to official data on Thursday.

Economists polled by Reuters had a median forecast for a 0.1 percent rise on the previous quarter and a rise of 0.8 percent compared to a year ago.

The backward-looking data has been overshadowed by the strong earthquake which struck New Zealand's second-largest city last month, killing at least 166 people.

It was the second quake to hit Christchurch and the surrounding region since early September, further dimming the near-term growth outlook.

Initial estimates have put the cost of the damage quakes as high as NZ$15 billion ($11 billion), about 7 percent of GDP.

But growth is expected to pick up over the next two years, boosted by reconstruction.

"The actions of the Reserve Bank have been in anticipation of further poor news and this relates to the first quarter rather than the fourth quarter. So policy has taken care of the downside risk," said UBS senior economist Robin Clements.

The New Zealand dollar rose to $0.7420 from around $0.7400 before the data, while interest rate futures <0#NBB:> were up to three points lower.

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For a table on GDP details

For an instant view from economists

For a graphic on NZ GDP and official cash rate

http://link.reuters.com/dev68r

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New Zealand's economy has struggled since it emerged from its longest recession in more than 30 years in the June quarter of 2009. The housing market and retail sales have been sluggish, with unemployment rising and wage growth weak, factors which have overshadowed benefits from a solid rebound in exports on higher commodity prices.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut its growth forecast for the year ending March 31 to 0.9 percent from 1.7 percent, and its projection for the year ending March 2012 to 2.7 percent from 3.4 percent.

OUTLOOK

The small expansion in the fourth quarter was driven by stronger manufacturing, construction, fishing and forestry sectors, offsetting falls in the wholesale and retail sectors.

Domestic consumption, which makes up around 60 percent of the economy, rose 0.2 percent, the seventh consecutive quarter of growth, albeit at low levels.

Inventories also had the largest build-up since the series began in June 1987.

Consumers have been cautious about spending in the face of subdued wage growth and high unemployment, and they have been rushing to reduce debt.

The economy is expected to pick up some pace later this year when New Zealand will host the Rugby World Cup, with tourism expected to add some NZ$700 million to the economy, or 0.3 percent of GDP.

The RBNZ slashed its interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.5 percent earlier this month to restore confidence and cushion the economy after the latest quake.

The majority of analysts in a recent Reuters poll believe the central bank will keep rates unchanged until the first quarter of 2012. A minority said that tightening will be needed before the end of the year to cope with strong growth and the emergence of strong inflationary pressures.

Financial markets' expectations were unchanged after the data, with traders pricing in 38 bps of tightening over the 12 months because of the subdued economy. (Reporting by Mantik Kusjanto; Editing by Balazs Koranyi)

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