* NZ economy contracts 0.9 pct qtr/qtr in Q4
* Contraction biggest since September 1992 quarter
* Q4 GDP 1.9 pct lower than a year ago
* Rising Kiwi and bond yields threaten to undermine policy (Adds details, analyst comment, market reaction)
By Mantik Kusjanto
WELLINGTON, March 27 (Reuters) - New Zealand's economy contracted in the fourth quarter at its fastest pace in 16 years as the global turmoil exacerbated a domestic slump, putting interest rate cuts back on the agenda.
Gross domestic product fell a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent as consumers spent less, businesses cut investment and weak global markets and prices hit exports, data showed on Friday.
In another sorry milestone, the economy contracted in all four quarters of 2008, the longest period of weakness since the current data series began in 1987.
(For a graphic on gross domestic products, see: https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/NZ_GDP0309.jpg) Economists said outlook remained weak as consumers remained cautious and business investment was expected to retreat due to sagging local and global demand.
While the shrinking economy is crying out for easier
monetary policy, recent sharp rises in the New Zealand dollar
Moves in markets are tightening the squeeze on New Zealand's economy, with the firmer kiwi dollar making exports less competitive and higher bond yields, triggered by rising swap rates, lifting the cost of consumer loans.
The central bank is now torn between pressure to lower interest rates to revive growth and the need to keep the return on New Zealand's currency attractive enough to lure foreign investment. "It may yet force the RBNZ's hand to do more, either on the rate front, or in signalling the potential for rates to remain at low levels for an extended period," said ANZ-National economist Philip Borkin. "We believe a combination of both is likely".
Bond prices have been tumbling since the central bank said on March 12 it may not cut interest rates much further from current low of 3 percent for fear of deterring investment needed to finance the second-heaviest foreign debt burden in the industrialised world.
Only Iceland, which imploded under the weight of the global financial crisis last year, had more net external debt as a percentage of GDP among the OECD group of rich nations.
Home buyers have rushed to refinance mortgages at low, fixed interest rates amid expectations rates may not go much lower.
Banks in turn sped to hedge their growing exposure and piled into the illiquid swaps market, helping drive the biggest three-day spike in five-year interest swap rates in 14 years.
"A strong lift in wholesale interest rates over recent weeks has pushed retail rates higher. This, along with hefty rise in the New Zealand dollar, threatens the forecast mild economic recovery later this year," said Brendan O'Donovan, chief economist of Westpac Bank.
He expects the New Zealand economy to contract by around 1 percent this quarter and by somewhat less in the second quarter.
Five-year yields
The best analysts could say about Friday's data was that the contraction was a little smaller than forecasts of a 1 percent drop and not as truly awful as declines suffered by some other developed nations.
"While much of the rest of the world is imploding spectacularly, the New Zealand economy is, so far at least, shrinking in a fairly orderly fashion," said Bank of New Zealand head of market economics Stephen Toplis.
New Zealand's trade partners such as Japan, South Korea, the United States, Britain and Taiwan had all suffered contractions between 1.5 percent and 8.4 percent in the fourth quarter.
Friday's data showed household spending was flat following three consecutive decreases, export volumes fell 3.3 percent and fixed capital investment plunged 5.3 percent.
The declines were only partly offset by higher farm output, mainly of dairy products, and government spending. (Additional reporting by Gyles Beckford and Adrian Bathgate; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)