UPDATE 4-Norway scales back stimulus spend in 2011 budget

Published 10/05/2010, 09:17 AM
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* Reliance on oil spending cut, further cut planned in 2012

* Tweaks up 2011 non-oil growth forecast to 3.1 percent/GDP

* Budget plan seen neutral for economy, interest rates

* Overall fiscal surplus seen above 11 percent of GDP

(Adds minister's quote on 2012 spending, graphic, details)

By Joachim Dagenborg and Walter Gibbs

OSLO, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Norway began winding down stimulus spending on Tuesday, saying it would rely less on the country's oil receipts next year as growth speeds up and aim to end overpayments from the sovereign wealth fund completely in 2012.

In a draft budget that nudged up official forecasts for non-oil growth, the government said it would cut Norway's reliance on oil proceeds to 4.2 percent of the value of the fund in 2011 from 4.7 percent this year.

The spending cap for the oil-based fund, aimed at preventing overheating and applied over the course of an economic cycle, is 4 percent.

"We should use more (oil revenues) when times are bad and less when times are good," Finance Minister Sigbjoern Johnsen told parliament, announcing the fiscal plan on Tuesday.

"Lately we have had an expansive policy to avoid unemployment... Tightening is now required so that we once again approach the level of 4 percent."

Johnsen said he intended to return to that level already in 2012 -- ending three years of extraordinary spending to stimulate economic activity in the wake of the financial crisis.

"If we don't have any surprises we'll be back to the 4 percent path in 2012," he told a news conference.

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For a graphic on how Norway's budgets rely on oil revenues, click on: http://r.reuters.com/vus86p

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NEUTRAL FOR RATES

Johnsen said an overly lax plan for 2011 might force up interest rates and strengthen the crown currency, which would hit competitiveness. Analysts said the budget draft seemed broadly neutral for the economy and monetary policy.

It sees growth excluding the offshore oil and gas industry at 3.1 percent of gross domestic product next year, slightly above the 2.9 percent clip forecast by Norway's statistics agency last month and a sharp rise from this year.

As the world's No. 5 oil exporter and No. 2 in natural gas, Norway benefited from its flourishing hydrocarbons industry to ride out the economic crisis better than its Scandinavian neighbours but it has emerged from recession relatively slowly.

Its economy contracted by 1.5 percent in 2009 and is expected to grow a modest 1.7 percent this year, held back by wavering consumer demand and uncertainties about the pace of global growth.

The budget draft set a public sector surplus of 266 billion crowns ($45.4 billion) including oil revenues to be siphoned off by the wealth fund and invested in offshore stocks and bonds.

That corresponds to a broad fiscal surplus of around 11 percent of Norway's forecast 2011 gross domestic product.

"The budget is very neutral... It won't affect rates," said Harald Magnus Andreassen, chief economist at First Securities.

Stein Bruun, chief economist at SEB Norge, said: "We expected a broadly neutral fiscal stance for 2011, so the marginal tightening is broadly in line with expectations.

"The budget can have an effect at the margins of monetary policy but the 2011 budget proposals are not that far away from what Norges Bank assumed in June."

The crown currency stabilised around 8.035 against the euro at 1245 GMT, up from morning lows above 8.05 and near Monday's closing level around 8.043.

The budget put forward by the Labour-led coalition estimated the 2011 structural non-oil deficit at 128.1 billion crowns ($21.9 billion). That is slightly below the revised figure for 2010 budget but on a par with it in real terms.

The 4 percent spending cap aims to keep the oil and gas sector at arm's length to the economy to prevent the "oil curse" of economic overheating, much higher interest rates than its trading partners and appreciation of its currency.

(With reporting by Camilla Knudsen, Terje Solsvik, Gwladys Fouche and Wojciech Moskwa; editing by John Stonestreet)

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