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UPDATE 2-Norway holds rates at record low, pondered hike

Published 09/23/2009, 09:58 AM
EUR/NOK
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TGT
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* C.bank says considered alternative of raising rates

* Says inflation below target, helped by strong crown

* Finance Minister says outlook brighter than months ago

* Norwegian crown hits 11 month high vs euro

(Adds details, quotes)

By Wojciech Moskwa and Joergen Frich

OSLO, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Norway's central bank held its main interest rate at a record low of 1.25 percent as expected on Wednesday, but said it had considered raising in a new signal of looming policy tightening as the economy recovers.

The crown surged to an 11-month high against the euro, bolstered by prospects of rate increases as early as next month and by finance ministry comments about Norway's economic outlook being brighter now than a few months ago.

Oil-rich Norway suffered only a mild recession amid the global downturn and risks are shifting to potential overheating down the road as the economy regains steam -- pushing Norges Bank towards an exit strategy from record low borrowing costs.

"The Executive Board considered the alternative of increasing the key policy rate at today's meeting," Deputy Governor Jan Qvigstad said.

The affluent North Sea state's economy has been buoyed by expansive monetary policy -- with rates slashed by 4.5 percentage points since last October -- and a number of stimulus packages by the deep-pocketed government.

Finance Minister Kristin Halvorsen said: "The outlook for Norway's economy is brighter than just a few months ago" and repeated her view that Norwegian households should not make plans "based on today's very low rates".

Norway's mainland GDP surprisingly grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter after a half-year recession, and unemployment is at 3.0 percent.

"We believe they will start tightening at the October meeting by 25 basis points," Katrine Godding Boye, analyst at Nordea Markets in Oslo told Reuters Television.

Qvigstad said the domestic economy was "doing well", partly because of the "very strong stimulus measures", although global growth could remain low "for a fairly long period ahead".

"We want to wait and see further how the economy develops when it is a bit more on its own," Qvigstad said when asked why Norges Bank did not hike rates already on Wednesday.

"If we have an absence of bad news, and if the Norwegian economy performs well, interest rates will slowly rise."

SURGING CROWN

The crown hit an 11-month high versus the euro at 8.5300 from 8.5940 before the rate announcement, on the prospects of rate increases coming sooner rather than later.

"The output gap in Norway has not widened as much as in other G10 economies suggesting that the Norges Bank would be amongst the first of the central banks to hike rates," said Kamal Sharma from JP Morgan Securities.

Norges Bank said the crown's appreciation would, "in conjunction with continued low imported inflation, contribute to keeping inflation below target in the year ahead".

Qvigstad said the crown could appreciate if Norges Bank increased official interest rates too quickly and by too much.

The head of Norway's biggest bank DnB NOR, Rune Bjerke told Reuters this week that Norway's exit strategy from lax monetary policy was "challenging" because of the risk of unwanted crown strengthening hitting export industries. [ID:nnLL79779]

Qvigstad said the exchange rate was a factor in setting interest rates, along with the situation on the labour market and the economy in general. But he added that the central bank had a "one-eyed" policy aimed at its sole target -- keeping inflation close to 2.5 percent over time. (Editing by Mike Peacock)

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