(Adds details from interview)
By Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW, Dec 27 (Reuters) - Russia should not slash oil export duty to zero and will keep on track its 2009 spending plans drafted during years of economic boom, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Saturday.
Kudrin said in an interview with Vesti 24 news channel Russia will run a budget deficit of between 1.5 trillion and 2.5 trillion roubles ($88.25 billion) or up to 6 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).
Kudrin said the shortfall will be covered from the $132.6 billion Reserve Fund, which serves as a safety cushion for the budget and vowed that public sector workers' salaries as well as pensions will not be affected.
"Even if oil falls to $20 per barrel we will not cut our
spending, at least at the federal level," Kudrin said. Russian
oil
"We will reshuffle our spending plans but will not reduce them... Public sector workers, pensioners have nothing to worry about," he added. Russia's public sector employs about a third of Russia's workforce.
Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, is likely to slash 38 percent from its oil export duty in January, charging $16.2 per barrel but oilmen say the move is not enough to keep on track their investment programmes.
"It is too early to talk about it," Kudrin told Vesti 24 news channel, adding that a weaker currency would boost oil firms' returns. He said the proposal did not take into account a weakening rouble and new tax breaks for the oil industry.
NOT VERY SIGNIFICANTLY
The collapse of oil and other commodity prices coupled with the global economic slowdown and capital flight from emerging markets have hit the Russian economy, which is now plunging into a recession.
The Economy Ministry forecasts 2009 nominal GDP at 42.1 trillion roubles ($1,486 billion), compared with 42.5 billion in 2008, if the price for oil, Russia's main export commodity, will average $50 per barrel during the year.
The rouble is down 17 percent against the dollar/euro basket, used by the central bank as an exchange rate policy guidance, since August peak and Kudrin said it could weaken further if oil drops below $50 per barrel.
"The exchange rate will fall but not very significantly," Kudrin said, ruling out the rouble weakening to 40-50 roubles against the dollar, as predicted by some analysts. "Such number are not being forecast."
ABLE TO PULL THROUGH OLYMPICS
About 400,000 Russians lost their jobs in November and government officials expect firms to shed another 240,000 jobs in January-February, turning the public sector into safe heaven, vital for maintaining social stability.
The current 2009 budget, passed by the upper house of parliament in November, was calculated based on the price for oil of $95 per barrel and is projecting nominal GDP at 51.5 trillion roubles.
The budget sees spending at 9.0 trillion roubles and fiscal surplus at 1.9 trillion roubles. Russia plans to review the budget early next year to take into account a fall in prices for Russian exports and an over $200 billion anti-crisis package. Several Russian officials earlier indicated the government would rather borrow from international financial organisation but keep on track plans to increase pensions and wages.
Kudrin said the review will not affect large scale infrastructure projects such as preparations for 2014 Winter Olympics in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.
"Olympics we will be able to pull through," Kudrin said. (Reporting by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Ron Askew)