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UPDATE 2-Metro keeps '08 forecast, braces for downturn

Published 10/30/2008, 09:11 AM

* Metro sticks to 2008 sales, profit forecast

* Cuts 2009 capex to prepare for economic downturn

* Shares rise as much as 13.6 percent

(Adds comments from CEO, CFO, analysts, share price)

By Eva Kuehnen

DUESSELDORF, Germany, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Metro, Germany's biggest listed retailer, kept its 2008 forecasts on Thursday but took a cautious view on the future as it braced for the impact of the financial crisis on Europe's biggest economy.

Metro shares rallied as much as 13.6 percent on the news and were up 9.9 percent at 24.18 euros by 1239 GMT, trouncing a 3.7 percent gain in Germany's blue-chip DAX index.

"Too much bad news priced-in," Merrill Lynch analysts said.

The stock fell almost 16 percent in the past five trading days and many analysts expected Metro to lower its forecasts due to slowing economic growth, especially in eastern Europe, where Metro generated about 28 percent of its third-quarter sales.

Metro, a bellwether of German economic health, still expects 2008 earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) before special items to grow 6 to 8 percent and sales to gain more than 6 percent, though this depended on the Christmas shopping season.

"We are preparing for tough times," Chief Executive Eckhard Cordes told a news conference and added Metro would cut its 2009 capital spending budget to 2 billion euros ($2.55 billion) from more than 2.2 billion in 2008.

This would also give Metro the needed financial flexibility to master possible headwinds, Chief Financial Officer Thomas Unger said. "We have taken our foot off the gas pedal."

HEADING INTO FOG

Cordes refrained from giving a forecast for next year, saying visibility was "foggy".

Beyond this year, Cordes said he could not confirm the company's mid-term targets of more than 6 percent sales growth and more than 8 percent earnings growth given the current uncertainty.

The financial crisis has left "some skid marks" on Metro's third-quarter results, which were broadly in line with analysts' estimates. Earnings before interest and tax rose 6.3 percent to 361 million euros on sales of 16.3 billion, up 6.7 percent.

Sales growth in eastern Europe slowed in the third quarter to about 18 percent from 20 percent in the first half, offsetting a weaker performance in western Europe, where business was "affected by an increasingly dampening macro economic environment".

Metro shares have been trading at 5.6 times projected 2009 earnings, a discount the sector average of the DJ Stoxx European retail sector index, according to Reuters Estimates.

Retailers are struggling to keep up growth as the impact of the credit crisis spoils consumers' appetite for spending.

The upcoming Christmas season will be crucial as this is when retailers -- particularly department stores such as Metro's Kaufhof -- make a large chunk of their annual revenues.

The department store chain, which posted a 1.5 percent drop in nine-month sales at stores open at least a year, is up for sale, but Cordes said a disposal would not make sense against the current economic backdrop and Metro was under no pressure.

"Kaufhof is not a fire sale," Cordes said.

It still pursuing a sale of its fashion store unit Adler, which was attracting strong interest, the CEO said. Adler's price tag, which Cordes saw at below 1 billion euros, would be financially feasible even in the current economic environment. (Editing by Hans Peters)

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