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UPDATE 2-Kurdish-Baghdad oil dialogue hopes spark DNO rally

Published 01/18/2010, 07:45 AM
Updated 01/18/2010, 07:51 AM

* No comment on Kurdish offer of talks to Baghdad-DNO

* Analysts say long period of discussions ahead

* Shares as high as 20 percent on hopes for "breakthrough" deal

(Adds more analyst comment, background)

By Wojciech Moskwa

OSLO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Shares in Norwegian oil producer DNO jumped as much as 20 percent on Monday on renewed hopes for an Iraqi oil export deal, even though analysts said Baghdad and Kurdish authorities still had a long way to go.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) said on Sunday it was "willing to enter a serious dialogue" with Baghdad over oil exports and might publish contracts signed with foreign oil companies to demonstrate its transparency.

DNO said on Monday its contract with the KRG had been published but declined to comment further on the developments.

A deal between the two sides is crucial for DNO. It has set up production in Iraqi Kurdistan but has halted exports due to the ongoing disagreement between the Arab-led government and the semi-autonomous Kurdish authorities over revenue sharing.

"This could be the breakthrough," said Arctic Securities analyst Trond Omdal. "There is still uncertainty about what the new regime will look like, but these developments are positive," referring to the parliamentary elections slated for March.

Shares in DNO rose as high as 20 percent and were up 15.2 percent to 6.14 crowns at 1225 GMT after a brief suspension was lifted by the Oslo bourse.

However, analysts said while renewed discussions between the KRG and Baghdad would be a step in the right direction, the road to DNO winning an export license was still long.

"This is a complicated issue and it will take time," said one analyst, who asked not to named.

DNO was the first foreign company to drill for oil in Iraq after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion to oust Saddam Hussein, but has so far not been able to capitalise fully on its trailblazer status, mainly due to political delays to getting approval for export from Kurdistan.

In a presentation published last week, DNO reiterated under its outlook for 2010 that it sought to "resume Tawke (field) export sales once payment procedures are in place".

DNO had exported as much as 50,000 barrels per day from its Tawke site in Iraqi Kurdistan in mid-2009 under a temporary deal between the KRG and Baghdad, but has still not been paid for its exports. Tawke production has been turned down and is now sold locally.

Analysts said markets had not priced in the chances for any oil deal before Iraq holds the election in March and that the latest price surge could be a reassessment of hitherto slim hopes for any quick deal with the Kurdish authorities.

Baghdad's hand was strengthened recently against the Kurds when Iraq secured agreements with international oil companies to develop oilfields south of the KRG border.

If successful, those deals could boost Iraqi national output to 12 million bpd, rivalling top producer Saudi Arabia, from 2.5 million bpd now, making Kurdish crude exports less important for a government that relies almost entirely on oil for revenue. (Additional reporting by Ole Petter Skonnord; editing by Will Waterman and Karen Foster)

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