(Adds Dvorkovich, analyst quotes)
By Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Russia will not sharply devalue the rouble but some weakening in the currency is possible if its current account slides to a sustained deficit, top Kremlin economic aide Arkady Dvorkovich said on Friday.
Dvorkovich was the first Russian official to publicly admit that Russia may not support the rouble exchange rate forever and will at some point allow some depreciation.
Russia runs a managed float of the rouble, keeping it within a trading band against a dollar/euro basket and has spent about $58 billion of its more than $500 billion in foreign exchange reserves in the last three months to prop up the currency.
The country ran a current account surplus of $91 billion in January-September 2008 due to record-high prices for oil, its main export commodity, but analysts say the fall in oil prices may weaken both its forex reserves and external balance.
Economists forecast the current account surplus to dive to less than $1 billion in 2009 due to falling prices for Russian exports. Dvorkovich said a current account deficit was possible in 2009.
"Exchange rate policy will be determined by the state of the balance of payments. In the case of a sustained current account deficit, some weakening of the rouble exchange rate is possible," Dvorkovich told reporters.
"There will be no sharp devaluation," Dvorkovich added.
Economists polled by Reuters last month see the 2008 surplus at a median of $101.0 billion.
Current account reflects the net flow of goods, services and interest payments into a country while the capital account reflects flows in portfolio and foreign direct investment. Foreign currency purchases are recorded as capital outflows.
RELATIVE SIGNIFICANCE "While the authorities will be prepared to spend reserves in response to capital outflows, they will not defend the rouble at its present level if the current account itself goes into deficit," said Goldman Sachs analyst Rory Macfarquhar.
The issue is sensitive for the government, which is keen to avert flight by households and corporates into foreign currency and has repeatedly said there will be no sharp fluctuations of the rouble exchange rate.
Russians rushed to exchange booths when the dollar surged against the euro, which immediately reflected in the rouble/dollar rate, due to the composition of the central bank's policy basket, made of 0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros.
Commercial banks have angered the government when they used state liquidity injections to buy dollars, forcing the central bank to introduce limits on currency swap operations and tell banks not to increase their foreign currency positions.
Economists see the rouble staying around the 30.40-41 level
versus the dollar/euro basket, which the central bank has
defended since August
Dvorkovich said the crisis will not alter Russia's plans to fully float the rouble in medium term as part of transition to inflation targeting regime.
Economists have said the government will make exchange rate policy decisions once it is able to see the full effect of the financial crisis on Russia's resource-based economy.
Dvorkovich said he saw Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth at around 7.0 percent this year and at 4.0 percent to 5.0 percent in 2009 "at current oil prices, if they don't rise".
Inflation should not exceed 14 percent this year, Dvorkovich said. In 2007, Russia's consumer price index rose 11.9 percent. (Reporting by Gleb Bryanski; editing by Patrick Graham)