UPDATE 2-Kazakhstan names reformer as central bank chief

(Adds analyst comments, background)

By Olzhas Auyezov

ALMATY, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan named Halyk bank chief executive Grigory Marchenko as central bank chairman on Wednesday, returning the reformer to a post he held from the late 1990s as it struggles to deal with a weaker Russian rouble.

Former chairman Anvar Saidenov, who saw Kazakhstan's tenge currency break from its dollar peg last week, is moving to another job, President Nursultan Nazarbayev's press service said in a statement.

The statement gave no details or reasons for the change.

Analysts said a shift in policy was likely with the appointment of Marchenko, an economist who oversaw a period of rapid growth in the financial sector and complex regulatory reforms following a sharp devaluation of the tenge in 1999. "If that is the thinking ..., the sign would be bearish for the tenge," said Renaissance Capital analyst Milena Ivanova-Venturini.

The 1999 tenge devaluation also followed the slump of Russia's rouble after the 1998 financial crisis. The rouble's gradual devaluation by more than 20 percent in recent weeks has made Russian exports more competitive with Kazakh producers.

"We would expect the Kazakh central bank now to follow the Russian central bank's lead and try to accelerate depreciation of the tenge," said Timothy Ash from RBS. Economic growth in the Central Asian country is expected to slow to 1-2 percent this year from about 10 percent seen between 2000 and 2007 when rapid expansion was fuelled by high prices for oil and metals, its key exports, and cheap foreign loans.

"Significant changes should be expected in the monetary policy within the next few months," said Vladimir Osakovsky of Russian brokerage Aton. "During such periods, experienced and tested people are needed."

FLUCTUATIONS

The Kazakh central bank last year kept the tenge pegged at between 120 and 121 to the dollar, but allowed it to break through that range on Jan. 12 and weaken to 121.31 on Jan 21.

The central bank has said it was prepared to let the currency fluctuate by about 5 percent throughout the year while Economy Minister Bakhyt Sultanov said that 10 percent fluctuations were also possible.

Analysts say a devaluation would make it harder for banks and their customers to repay debt. Kazakh banks are due to repay $11 billion in foreign debt next year and another $7 billion in 2010 out of their total $40 billion liabilities.

Marchenko, a liberal economist who first joined the public service in 1992, has often expressed views that were at odds with those of other decision-makers in Nazarbayev's team.

In 1997 he stepped down as chairman of the Securities Commission over a disagreement on stock market development policies and spent two year working for Deutsche Bank.

In 2004, just three months after joining the government as Deputy Prime Minister, he quit, saying he did not agree with some of the cabinet's economic policies.

Among those criticised by him was Kairat Kelimbetov, now the Chief Executive of Samruk-Kazyna, the national welfare fund charged with managing the $21 billion economic rescue package.

Ivanova-Venturini said the news was negative for Halyk bank , which traded 8.58 percent below yesterday's closing price after the announcement, but only in the short term since in the longer run the whole sector should benefit. (Writing by Olzhas Auyezov; Additional reporting by Masha Gordeyeva)