* Wages, bonuses likely to keep falling on cost-cutting
* Low salaries hurt consumption, slowing economic recovery * Output gap widens to a record as supply exceeds demand
By Stanley White
TOKYO, June 1 (Reuters) - Japanese wage earners' total cash earnings fell in the year to April, the 11th decline in a row, as companies cut costs while unsure if a pickup in overseas demand will last.
The output gap widened to a record in the first quarter as supply exceeded demand, which could push Japan further into its second bout of deflation in less than two years.
Japanese auto and tech manufacturers have said they plan to reverse some production cuts in the coming months to restock goods but output is still around a third lower than a year earlier.
Economists say unemployment will rise above the current 5-1/2-year high as gains in output are not enough to encourage companies to spend more on salaries and hire new workers.
That will likely depress personal consumption and slow the economy's recovery from a record contraction, analysts say.
"Companies still aren't making profits, so bonuses and salaries will continue to fall," said Tetsuro Sawano, a senior fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.
"The economy has stabilised but the labour market will be severe for the next year or so. We really can't expect much from consumption," Sawano said.
Total cash earnings fell 2.5 percent in April from a year earlier to 272,453 yen ($2,859), government figures showed on Monday. In March, wages fell a revised 3.9 percent from the previous year, the largest decline in nearly seven years.
Overtime pay, a barometer of strength in corporate activity, fell 18.8 percent in April from a year earlier, compared with the previous month's 20.8 percent decline, which was the biggest fall on record. Overtime pay has fallen for nine straight months.
The output gap widened to a record minus 8.5 percent in January-March from minus 4.5 percent in the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said on Monday. The output gap shows how much gross domestic product has deviated from potential GDP, or the volume of activity when the economy is running at full capacity.
The Bank of Japan, which currently sets its benchmark interest rate at 0.1 percent, sees the output gap as a key variable for determining monetary policy and gauging price conditions. A negative output gap means there is less pressure on prices to rise. The economy is not in serious deflation but it is necessary to watch for such risks, a Cabinet Office official said. The BOJ should continue to respond with monetary policy, the official said.
Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect their output to show a jump of 8.8 percent for May and a further 2.7 percent in June after data last week showed industrial production rose 5.2 percent in April, the biggest gain since 1953.
Analysts said those gains were due mainly to efforts by major governments to stimulate economic activity by encouraging people to buy cars and TVs and may not be sustainable.
Data last week also showed Japan's unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in April, the highest since November 2003, and core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, fell for a second month compared to the previous year due to low demand.
Japan's economy shrank a record 4.0 percent in the first quarter as investment and domestic demand buckled. Economists doubt domestic demand will be strong enough to support growth after the impact of the Japanese government's $160 billion stimulus package starts to fade. (Editing by Michael Watson)