* Economy estimated to grow 0.1 percent in 2009
* Q2 GDP stays at annual rate of +1.0 percent
* CPI slips to 3.1 percent rate in August
(Recasts, adds data, economists' comments)
By Steven Scheer
JERUSALEM, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Israel's economy is expected to grow marginally this year, keeping pressure on the Bank of Israel to raise rates again as the economy continues to rebound from a recession and inflation sticks above a 3 percent rate.
The Central Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday estimated the economy will grow by 0.1 percent in 2009, basing its forecast on data from the first six to eight months of the year.
Excluding the public sector, the economy is forecast to contract by 0.7 percent in 2009.
The bureau also left unchanged an estimate showing gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1 percent in the second quarter -- a figure when issued a month ago surprised the markets, led economists to revise 2009 growth forecasts higher and partly prompt a central bank rate hike on Aug. 24.
Exports rose in the second quarter, with quarterly increases also recorded in consumer and state spending and investment in fixed assets.
"What we are seeing from the second quarter are some positive signs. The economy seems to be growing," Soli Peleg, the bureau's macroeconomic chief, said at a news conference.
Peleg estimated consumer spending -- more than half of Israeli economic activity -- to rise 0.4 percent in 2009 while government spending should increase 0.9 percent. Construction is also predicted to rise.
With the global economy still weak, exports are forecast to slip more than 10 percent this year, led by an estimated 37 percent fall in diamond exports. Investment in fixed assets are seen falling nearly 10 percent.
Peleg noted OECD countries are expected to contract by 4.1 percent this year.
Israel had entered a recession after contracting in the fourth quarter of 2008 and in the first quarter of 2009, with most analysts -- and the central bank -- expecting a decline of some 1.5 percent for all of this year.
But after last month's second-quarter GDP data, the Bank of Israel revised its growth forecast up to zero in 2009.
RECESSION?
That would mean Israel would stay in recession on a per capita basis since its annual population growth rate is about 1.7 percent.
The central bank will decide on short-term rates on Sept. 24 in a meeting moved up by four days due to the Yom Kippur holiday. It was the first major central bank to raise rates when it increased its key rate by a quarter-point to 0.75 percent on Aug. 24.
Another quarter-point rise by Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer is forecast for next week in light of data from late Tuesday showing a 0.5 percent jump in the August consumer price index that pushed the annual inflation rate to 3.1 percent from 3.5 percent in July [ID:nJEC002010]. Israel's target is 1 to 3 percent a year.
"This CPI ... along with a series of encouraging macro data from Israel and around the world will prompt the governor to raise interest rates next Thursday," Yaniv Raz, head of investments at the Tamir Fishman brokerage, wrote in a client note.
Inflation expectations for the next 12 months held steady at 2.4 percent in August [ID:nLG717487], data showed on Wednesday.
Leader Capital Markets economist Rafael Gozlan said he expects the key lending rate to reach 1 percent next week and there would be perhaps one more rate increase by year-end since inflation looks to ease in coming months.
The bureau also on Wednesday revised the second-quarter contraction to an annual rate of 3.3 percent from 3.2 percent.
Citi economist David Lubin sees just one more quarter-point rate increase in 2009 and another half-point in 2010.
"The market may be pricing in too many hikes," he said, noting the bond market sees nearly 200 basis points of rate increases by mid-2010.
He noted that the shekel's
The central bank is trying to stem the shekel's rise through intervention. On Wednesday, it bought another $200 million of foreign currency, according to dealers. (Editing by Andy Bruce)