* Key rate stays at 0.75 percent
* Central bank sees inflation moderating in 2010
* Shekel steady versus dollar at near 10-month peak
(Adds analysts' comments)
By Steven Scheer
JERUSALEM, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The Bank of Israel held off from hiking interest rates for a second month on Monday, citing uncertainty about the strength of the economic recovery and an expectation that inflation pressures will moderate into 2010.
But economists predict the central bank will raise its main interest rate from 0.75 percent later in 2009 or early in 2010 to combat inflation stemming from the recovery.
In August the Bank of Israel was the first major central bank to raise rates since the financial crisis prompted a cycle of sharp monetary easing worldwide, concerned that price pressures would rise as the economy bounced back faster than earlier expected.
No rate move was expected in the wake of a 0.3 percent drop in September consumer prices that pushed annual inflation down to a rate of 2.8 percent and data showing inflation pressures should ease over the next year.
Economists, though, see an inflation spike back to 4 percent in coming months before easing in 2010.
"The decision ... will help keep inflation within the target range (of 1 to 3 percent a year) and underpin the recovery in real activity, while supporting financial stability," the Bank of Israel said in a statement.
"There is still uncertainty regarding the strength of the recovery in Israel, mainly because of the uncertainty about the recovery in the global economy," it said.
It added that the effects of tax increases imposed over the past few months are set to end and the economy, while recovering, would remain weak since unemployment is rising.
"Leaving interest rates unchanged for a second month in a row gives markets the message that the central bank isn't interested in aggressive restraint as long as uncertainty exists regarding the extent of global recovery," said Rafael Gozlan, an economist at Leader Capital Markets in Tel Aviv.
Gozlan expects rates to stay on hold until the second quarter of 2010.
After raising the key rate by a quarter-point in late August, Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer held fire last month despite support from other central bank officials for another rate hike.
INFLATION
Jonathan Katz, an economist at HSBC, believes Fischer should have raised rates again since Israel has an inflation problem. He said if the central bank can ignore tax hikes, it should also ignore a steep drop in energy and other commodities prices over the past 12 months.
At the same time, unemployment has started to edge lower while housing prices have soared as real interest rates have stayed low, he noted.
"A year from now, if he (Fischer) keeps this logic for six more months, he will struggle to maintain the inflation target," Katz said, forecasting rates around 2.5 percent in a year.
A rate hike on Monday would also have likely pushed the
shekel
The shekel, up 15 percent since April, was little moved in off-session trade after the decision, holding close to a 10-month peak. The currency's gains have upset exporters and officials since exports -- nearly half of Israel's economic activity -- have already been damaged by the global recession.
"No central bank should let monetary policy be held captive by the sense of a need to maintain a competitive currency," Katz said.
While the bank has eased up on its campaign of intervention, it is still buying foreign currency from time to time and dealers said it bought as much as $40 million earlier on Monday.
"The Bank of Israel's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged and to continue with an expansionary monetary policy and with its foreign exchange market policy strikes a balance between maintaining price stability, supporting the recovery of the economy and boosting employment in light of the high unemployment rate, and preserving financial stability," the bank said. (Editing by Andy Bruce)