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UPDATE 2-Indonesia sees 1.6 pct 2010 budget gap, higher growth

Published 08/03/2009, 03:23 AM

(For highlights of state budget, see [ID:nJAK522135])

* GDP to grow 5 pct in 2010, inflation at 5 pct

* Budget deficit of 1.6 pct of GDP, focus on domestic funding

* Focus on infrastructure, civil service reform (Rewrites throughout)

By Muklis Ali

JAKARTA, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Indonesia's president on Monday unveiled a 2010 budget that promises to trim the fiscal deficit with the help of accelerating economy and aims to fund most of the shortfall in the domestic market.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who won a second term in last month's election thanks to his sound economic management and fight against graft, said next year's deficit should fall to 1.6 percent of gross domestic product from 2.5 percent this year.

The deficit was in line with expectations, but government bonds dipped, reflecting some doubts whether the domestic debt market was deep enough to accommodate the government's borrowing needs. [ID:nHKG7044]

The state budget targeted only a small increase in overall expenditure next year, but boosted spending on infrastructure and civil service reform, both of which have held back economic growth, as well as education, and military equipment.

The budget "has been greatly influenced by the global economic crisis," Yudhoyono told parliament.

"Policies which are pro-growth, pro-poor, and pro-job remain the top priorities," he said.

The budget forecast economic growth would pick up to 5 percent next year from 3-4 percent seen this year, while inflation is expected to average at 5 percent, compared with from 2.71 percent in July, its lowest annual rate since mid-2000. [ID:nJKB001312]

While some of the forecasts had been publicly disclosed ahead of the budget speech, Yudhoyono added that most of the funding of the budget deficit of 98 trillion rupiah ($9.89 billion) would be done domestically in order to reduce Indonesia's reliance on foreign borrowing.

STILL EXPANSIONARY

"A budget deficit of 1.6 percent shows next year's budget remains expansionary," said Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, economist at Danareksa Research Institute.

"The government realises there's a need for a fiscal drive for the economy, also the debt-to-GDP ratio is still manageable, still below the standard in European nations."

The budget is targeting a debt-to-GDP ratio of 30 percent in 2010, little changed from this year.

State revenues are targeted at 911.5 trillion rupiah, next year, including forecast tax revenue of 729.2 trillion rupiah, while spending was set at 1,009.5 trillion rupiah. That represents a small increase of 3.8 trillion rupiah over the 2009 budget, which included an extra fiscal stimulus to cope with the global downturn.

Yudhoyono said the government planned to tap a standby loan from various international agencies which was put in place last year, as well as borrow in the domestic debt market and internationally, both via global sukuk and conventional bonds.

He said the government planned to use domestic financing sources of around 107.9 trillion rupiah and net foreign financing estimated to be minus 9.9 trillion rupiah, adding: "in other words, our foreign debt stock is declining, which means that our dependence on foreign countries also continues to diminish."

Separately, the finance ministry said in a statement that its net debt issuance next year would be around 104.4 trillion.

Economists voiced scepticism that Indonesia could struggle to achieve most of its funding in the domestic market.

"The government must also take into account the ability of the domestic market to absorb new debt issuance as the level of foreign ownership in our bond market is already quite large and this could be a source of volatility if they get out," said Helmi Arman, economist and bond strategist at Bank Danamon.

The government has "diversified their sources of financing into instruments such as medium term notes, yen-denominated bonds and sukuk. This should be continued as it will help reduce perceived risk in the rupiah-denominated bond market."

Indonesian sovereign bond prices dipped, snapping a two-day gain, with the nation's 11.625 percent bond due in 2019 trading at 134.50/135.75 from 135.50/136.00 on Friday, traders said.

However, a Jakarta-based fixed income trader said the budget news had limited overall impact on the rupiah bond market as its forecasts had largely been discounted.

As one of the few countries in the region expected to see growth this year, Indonesia has attracted interest from foreign investors, with strong inflows into bonds, stocks <.JKSE> and rupiah currency , Asia's top performer this year. ($1=9905 Rupiah) (Additional reporting by Olivia Rondonuwu, Dicky Kristanto, Tyagita Silka, Sonya Angraini, Andre Ismar; Writing by Sara Webb; Editing by Ed Davies and Tomasz Janowski)

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